View Full Version : What do you think of this play?

02-09-2004, 06:00 PM
$109 Party SNG: 4 left, with stacks of UTG:244, Button(me):621 (don't ask), SB:6702, BB:1833, all after posting 200/400 blinds.

UTG goes allin, probably a better than average hand, but not necessarily good. I have 75o, I call, since I want to have maximum chance of knocking out UTG, and he will have more chips than me if he wins this hand. However, I do have enough to survive the blinds if I fold, and he will be allin before me if we both fold the next 4 hands.

As it played out, SB folded, and BB wasn't content to check it down, betting the flop of T64, two suited. I called with my OE, and probably would have called with anything better than 2 undercards to the board with no draw.

It turned out the hands were bad for me, BB had K6s, UTG had QTs, but I fortunately caught an 8 on the river.


02-09-2004, 06:17 PM
This can be solved fairly easy using game theory if you have the correct odds to compute (which I dont or I would do it).

You need to basically compare the added chances of knocking UTG out compared to the big negative if you lose as your call gives him enough chips to survive the blinds and takes away your ability to survive the blinds. If he wins he will most likely me all in the next hand.

My guess is that your play is correct.

02-09-2004, 07:04 PM
Suppose you fold preflop. Now if UTG wins this hand he will have either 688 (if SB folds preflop) or 732 (if SB calls/raises preflop). Do I have that right? Then on the next hand he will have to post a 400 BB while you will be under the gun. You can play that hand if you get something good, although if you play it and lose you will be fourth. If you fold that hand, it's likely that one of the other players will put the BB all in. So basically that guy needs to win two in a row or else he will be out in fourth place, and all you have to do is fold twice. What's the probability of his winning two in a row? Maybe about 30% (considering that he's just raised so his current hand is above average).

If you call now, your 75o is probably a 64:36 underdog against the short stack, but it's worse for you if the short stack has a suited connector like 98s. It's much worse for you if he has a pocket pair greater than sixes or a dominating hand like K5. Of course even if UTG's hand beats you, one of the blinds could still beat both of you, which is okay for you since you'll then get third place. Also, by my calculations if the short stack beats you but one of the blinds comes in and you beat him, then you'll have 754 chips while the short stack will have 732 and be taking the big blind. It's just that 75o is such a terrible hand. Let's ignore the short stack and assume that one of the blinds moves you in preflop with any two cards. Against one random hand you're about 40%. If both blinds come in with random cards, you're only about 26% to beat both of them.

All in all, it seems to me that if you call here, there will be a 45-50% chance of you're finishing fourth. Whereas if you fold the next two hands, it's just a 30-35% chance that you finish fourth. Of course your chance of first or second place will be greater if you call now with the 75o. But your chance of first is slim whatever you do.

I'm too lazy to work this through further, but based on the above reasoning it seems to me you should fold.

02-09-2004, 08:09 PM
I'm too lazy to work this through further, but based on the above reasoning it seems to me you should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I seem to be even lazier I will simply say..."What he said". I would try to find a better hand in the next two or 4 depending on what happens with the smaller stack.

02-09-2004, 09:36 PM
I didn't think so at the time, but you guys are right.

I did (apparently incorrectly) think that BB would check down a fair number of hands. Given his play, I am surprised he didn't put me allin preflop. If this happens, I have enough chips left to compete for 3rd if I win my next BB.

I also thought since my cards were unlikely to be in UTG's hand that I could win a fair number of hands where he beat the BB (because neither hit).

I alos correctly guessed that SB would fold a fair number of this type of hands.

However, I think I underestimated my chances of 3rd if I folded and UTG won.

I think winning this hand gives me ~$250, BB winning ~$200, beating BB but losing to UTG ~100-140. Folding gives me 225 or 100-140. However, there are only about 14% of the hands UTG would win headsup that he now loses, so I am better off taking a chance later. I get about $145-150 for calling, but 150-170 for folding if I assume SB will always drop. Add in the few good hands he will definitely call or raise with, and it is a bad call.

Or alternatively, chance of 4th is about 58%*50%=29% when I fold, and 26%+9%=35% when I call, which is not compensated for by the few 2nd's.

(As it happened, I won the hand, managed to beat out BB, and got up to even headsup, but took 2nd with A6o vs. 33)