View Full Version : Folding very good hands pre-flop

02-09-2004, 01:05 PM
Am I the only one who does this:

With 3 or 4 players left, if I am chip leader or close, if two others go head to head either all in or big raises, I will often fold hands like AQs, QQ, KQs.

Short handed they could have almost anything, and there is a good chance I have the best hand. But, I figure it's in my best interest to stay out and assume one will be completely eliminated then enter and risk myself. No risk for a good reward, instead of medium risk for a great reward.

Is this too tight ??

02-09-2004, 01:09 PM
I honestly don't think I have ever folded QQ or AQ pre flop shorthanded even to an all in raise. I figure that if I lose with those, I am just going to have to go broke. KQs is a more situational hand.

Edit: I just re-read the post and thought a bit about the circumstances. It might possibly be in your best interest to fold given two shortstacks going head to head. I guess it would depend.

02-09-2004, 01:21 PM
A big distinction must be drawn between KQs/AQ and QQ. QQ Is only an underdog to two hands and a big favorite to many hands. AQ/KQs can be dominated by AA, KK, QQ, AQ (for KQ) AK, and are only even money against any pair.

So in my opinion if you're mucking QQ preflop shorthanded (As the chip leader!!) then yes you are definitely playing too tight. But with two people all in it is likely that your KQ is dominated and possibly the same is true for AQ.

At this stage if I had a large chip advantage over the short stacks and calling wouldn't really hurt me too much then I would probably call and try to knock them both out. It also depends on just how often the players have been stealing and the range of hands that they have been pushing.

02-09-2004, 01:22 PM
I do it also! I think it's the safest thing to do that late in the tourney.. If we take QQ for an example.. If we have two opponents that have gone all-in with A 10s and K Q and you have Q Q. Here is the statics for the hands..

A 10s win 32.64% lose 67.06%
K Q win 22.82% lose 76.32%
Q Q win 43.68% lose 55.46%

Tha means with QQ you will lose more times that you will win! Even when you have the better hand! So the smart thing is to play like you do.. I mean you earn money by folding and let them fight it out! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

But if i had KK or AA i would probably never fold..

So.. in other words.. i think your play is fine! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

02-09-2004, 02:06 PM

With your reasoning, 45% with QQ to win 50% of the prize pool. 55% to only get third or second (2nd if you are chipleader).

this equals 45%*50%+55%*30% or 39%
In a typical 10+1 on party, this would be an equity of $39 AND, that's not taking into account a comeback win.

By folding the QQ, you will be shortstacked heads up, so assume only 40% of winning from there.

40%*50%+60%*30%= 38%
In the same 10+1, this is only an equity of $38

So, despite the fact that you lose more times than you win, in the long run, you will win more than you lose.(The math I have shown entirely leaves out the possible range of hands they might have and just uses your numbers. It also neglects the fact that you can still comeback by calling and losing. I believe you would win significantly more than $1 on average)

Bozeman has been posting a comment frequently here about how we should strive to trade our 2nd place finishes for 1sts and 3rds. This will increase your ROI and I think it is evident here. The KQs and AQs are different matters entirely, though I personally might still call with the AQs. QQ is a hand I'd never fold here. Sure I'm only 45% to win the pot, but I triple my money if I win (from shortstacks!). As chipleader, You should definitely call because you are still guaranteed second unless they both beat you with a split pot.

Getting back to the Bozeman suggestion I mentioned, I have to say, this is the most valuable peice of info I have gotten off this forum in months. It has made a huge difference in my own ROI of late. By taking good risks when there are three left, you will effectively be giving yourself more thirds and firsts (and in this case, you are a lock for 2nd anyways because of the higher chip count going into the pot).

Remember, you are trying to win.

Brad S

02-09-2004, 02:31 PM
Anytime it's down to the wire and two opponents go all-in against each other, your EV goes up. therefore it is reasonable to fold good hands and avoid confrontations in these situations when your opponents have stacks that could hurt you. Three-way all-in situations hurt the chances of your hand standing up anyway, so being OUT during the confrontation is all that much more appealing.


02-09-2004, 02:35 PM
What you are doing is the same lesson I've ben learning the hard way in NL play.

Though my tourney "schooling" is admitedly pretty limited, I've learned that I don't want to put my tourney on the line with AK, AQ, QQ or less. While they are great hands, they seem to get my in trouble far more times than they've held up.

Now, I will open raise (maybe all-in) with those hands and less, but I won't call all-in with them especially if there is already a caller. I prefer to let my post-flop skills do some work instead of counting on a friendly flop.