View Full Version : Winning session probability

01-07-2004, 03:14 AM
People will have to make some assumptions about this one.

For sake of argument, we'll say that Joe wins at 1BB per 100 hands.

How many hands does he need to play to be 50% likely or better, to have a winning session in a full ring game, assuming he starts on the big blind.

Because of the mechanics of winning poker play, I'm thinking that most sessions under 30 or 40 hands will be losers, even for a winning player.

Im as interested in the assumptions you make as the actual answer, although i feel the answer would be very interesting from a proposition bet point of view (two people betting on an unsuspecting third party)


01-07-2004, 04:37 AM
All I can say is from my experience in keeping statistics on
loose ring LHE games where my win rate was between 1.2 BB
and 1.4 BB an hour, the average number of pots (including
blind steals!) per hour was approximately 1.5. The games
were B&M with slow players/slow dealers so it was unlikely
that on average more than 37 hands an hour so I probably won
only between 4 and 5% of the pots. For one orbit, I think
a tight aggressive player would be an underdog to be up and
would be a big favorite to be stuck (albeit most of the time
it will be for a very small number of bets). For two orbits
I think it would be closer, but again, I think a tight
aggressive winning player would be a underdog to be up; on
the other hand, players that adopt a looser style (not
necessarily a style that would have a better long run +EV)
might have a better than 50% chance of being up after two
orbits. I think 3 orbits is sufficient for a long-run
winning player to have a greater than 50% chance of being up
any amount of chips.

If the player only makes 1 BB per a hundred hands, he may be
playing too tight, in which case it is much less likely he
would be up after three orbits; on the other hand, if this
player plays a little too loose, it is much more likely that
he would be up after three orbits. I think four orbits
would normally suffice for this winning player to have a
better than even chance to be up. The biggest factor seems
to be the % of pots won which will be a function of how
often the player takes the flop, the turn and the river.