View Full Version : What are the odds you pick up your openender with one card to go

12-24-2003, 01:37 PM
two cards?

12-26-2003, 03:52 AM
8 outs with 1 card to come, About 6 to 1.

8 outs with 2 cards to come, About 3 to 1.


12-26-2003, 06:04 AM
8 outs with 1 card to come, About 6 to 1.

8 outs with 2 cards to come, About 3 to 1.

No, 8 outs with 1 card to come is about 1 IN 6 or 5 TO 1.

With 2 cards to come it's 8/47 + 39/47 * 8/46 = 1 in 3.2 or 2.2 TO 1.

12-28-2003, 06:10 AM
Does that mean 1 in 2, is 1 to 1? Sounds fishy to me.


12-29-2003, 03:41 AM
"Does that mean 1 in 2, is 1 to 1? Sounds fishy to me."

"1 in 2" means succeeding one time out of two total tries (times) --- which is a 50% chance of success. Your odds of success are 1 to 1 against, you're a 1:1 "dog" to succeed. In other words, even money.

12-29-2003, 05:57 AM
Just a miss communication... np. 8)

You say tomatoe, quayle says... nm



12-29-2003, 11:37 AM
Odds are always expressed as wins-TO-losses. Probability is wins IN total tries. 1-to-1 odds means 1 win for every 1 loss or even money, and this is the same as 1 IN 2. You cannot use the two forms interchangably without changing the numbers, and they are not arbitrary. Probability of 1 in x will always correspond to odds of x-1 to 1. If the odds are 5-1 against me, that means I win 1 time in 6.

If I have 8 outs to make my hand on the turn, that's 8 out of 47, and since 8 cards make my hand while 39 do not, the odds are 39-to-8 which is almost 5-1.

12-30-2003, 07:06 AM
Bruce you are a great asset to 2+2.I hope you stay around a long time!!

I am pretty poor with applying theory to anything but simple poker decision making but I do have some shortcuts that I've learned to use:
Here is how I make it simple.I love to exercise my brain when playing ring games it keeps me alert.Bigbet games really force you to be constantly figuring odds thats one reason why I like to play NL and PL more than Limit.Short and tight Limit games are also going to force you to be good w/odds or you will be a loser.

To figure basic odds in holdem for just one card to come either on the turn or on river is very easy.There are 2 numbers you need to know 47 and 46.That's it ..it's that simple.Any time you know your outs on the flop and want to figure hitting your hand on next card u use 47 for the turn and after seeing the turn you use 46 for the river.Just associate 47 w/flop-turn odds and 46 with turn -river outs.For Omaha(PLO) use the same concept but use 45 and 44.
Obviously to make this work you need to first master basic outs of common hands.Then all you do is apply those basics to your two numbers 47/46.To remember correct 2 card outs you're going to have to do some work/memorization.

It's that simple if you have second pair vs.an opponent that has top pair heads-up on the flop you know you have 5 outs to get the best hand thus 5 cards out of 47 or 42-5 or 8.4-1 with just one card to come from the flop..from turn to river 5 out of 46 cards or 41-5 or 8-1.If you have an open-ended straight draw and just want odds of making your hand just with one card to come on the flop its 39-8 or 4.875-1 on the turn to figures odds for hitting the river 38-8 or 4.75-1.

The expert player has all this ingrained in his mind especially bigbet players.You should know these basic one card outs for all heads-up situations.You should also know all the common flop-to-river outs.

I'm no math expert obvioulsy but I know how to apply the concepts correctly.I definetly find solace in numbers.

Here are 8 common scenarios and the odds of making them flop-river,flop-turn,turn-river in percentages and odds:

1.Flush Draw(9 outs):35%(1.86-1),19.1%(4.2-1),19.6%(4.1-1)

2.Straight Draw(8 outs):31.5%(2.18-1),17%(4.9-1),17.4%(4.8-1)

3.StraightFlush Draw(15 outs):54%(0.85-1),31.9%(2.13-1),32.6%(2.07-1)

4.Second Pair and Flush Draw vs. Top Pair(14 outs):51%(0.95-1),29.8%(2.36-1),30.4%(2.29-1)

5.Second Pair vs. Top Pair(5 outs):20.4%(3.91-1),10.6%(8.4-1),11%(8.2-1)

6.Gutshot Straight Draw(4 outs):16.5%(5.07-1),8.5%(10.8-1),8.7%(10.5-1)

7.Flush Draw and Gutshot vs. Top Pair(12 outs):45%(1.22-1),25.5%(2.9-1),26%(2.8-1)

8.Pocket Pair vs Higher Pocket Pair(2 outs):8.4%(10.88-1),4.2%(22.5-1),4.3%(22-1)

13.5 OUTS is a good number to remember it is the breakeven point.From flop-river 13 outs are 48% and 14 outs are 51%.

Use the shortcuts 46 and 47 for holdem and keep that 13 1/2 outs figure in your noddle.... it makes things much much easier!!!

I need to work on all of this myself and think about every single possible scenario with f-r odds.f-t odds and t-r odds.I've got about 16 of these ..need to get more and work on knowing more of this stuff autoamtically which I still dont do except in very basic situations..