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08-13-2002, 09:46 AM
First of all does anyone know where i can find a good source, or can they clearly explain a good way to figure out odds for Omaha hands. I can do Holdem odds easily but Omaha gets a little more complicated.


But more importantly (terrible english I know), there is a player at my club that refuses to believe that he can flop the nuts in omaha and be a dog to win heads up. He has offered me an even money bet that i can set up 2 hands however I want on the flop, and we will pay even money for the winner.


I chose a flop of JhTh2d with me holding KhQh9d8d and him holding JsJcTsTc. Now i know i have a huge edge over him here, but how big is it? I figure I have 4 As, 3 Ks, 3 Qs, 3 9s, 3 8s, and 4 7s for the straight plus 4 additional hearts (2h makes a full). I also have a backdoor flush draw.


So thats 24 outs twice plus a backdoor flush draw, which will prove to be largely irrelevant as most times i make it a straight will also be formed (only 5 extra runner runner outs I think).


His odds of filling are dramatically reduced by his double set, and the 9h or Ah are lockout or killer outs for me.


So what are the exact odds? He agreed to run the bet for $20 10 times, and more if he still likes it.

08-13-2002, 04:53 PM
I calculate you have a 64.9% chance of winning.


Here is the breakdown in case anybody finds something different.


On the turn

4.9% You get the nuts (Ah or 9h)

53.7% You go ahead (no nuts) via str or flush

12.2% He gets his fullhouse or quads, then you need strfl or royal flush

29.3% the card was no help


On the river

First scenario you have won already

2nd he comes back 17.9%. I calculated 7.14 outs. It depends on what card you took the lead with to determine the # of outs, so i took the average.


3rd you have a 5% for the str or royal for the win.

4th 52.5% chance you win (you lose one out from the hearts as it could bring a full house).


I may be off by a few tenths (or maybe even fully blew this but i don't think so), but don't feel like figuring out all 1641 situations on their own.


So you are getting almost 2:1


if you want my annoying spreadsheet..lmk.

Hopefully i won't have closed excel by then


SD

08-13-2002, 06:11 PM
Someone mentioned this interface on the stud forum a month or so ago:


twodimes.net/poker.


TO figure things like this out is often tedious but rarely hard.

08-16-2002, 08:49 PM
Pete - Flop is JhTh2d. You have KhQh9d8d. Opponent has JsJcTsTc.


There is no formula. You have to make a chart.


Start with the card(s) making the best possible hand. Then go down from there, straight flush, quads, full house, flush, straight, finally set of Js. Consider all combinations using the cards that can make a straight flush. Then put them aside and deal with the remaining cards.


For example, start with Ah and 9h. There are 39 other cards in pack.


Ah+9h......1 combo ......you win with a straight flush


Ah or 9h + anything else

Ah or 9h + a.e. ......78 combos (from 2*39)

......you win (straight flush)


Now youíre done with Ah and 9h. Youíve used them in every possible combination. Put them aside and deal with the cards making the next highest possible hand.

----

Next choose Jd and Td. There are 37 other cards left in pack.


Jd+Td......1......opponent wins with quads


Jd or Td with anything else

......74......2*37......opponent wins (quads)


Now youíre also done with Jd and Td. Put themn aside too.

-----

Next choose the deuces. There are 34 other cards left in pack.


22......3......opponent wins (full house)

2X ......102......3*34......opponent wins (full house)


Now youíre also done with the deuces.

-----

You could choose to deal with a running pair next, but it's easier to deal with flushs next. There are six hearts left in the pack, and thus 28 other cards. Some of the time a heart will end up paired, (hP) so that we werenít totally done with full houses. But we knew that when we skipped over running pairs. No big deal.


hh......15......6*5/2......you win (flush)

hP......17......opponent wins (full house)

hn......151......6*28-17......you win (flush)


Now youíre also done with the rest of the hearts. Put them aside too. The calculations get easier and easier as you have fewer and fewer cards to deal with.

-----

Straights next? In that case, consider the cards that make straights next.


AA......3......opponent wins (full house)

AX......75......3*25......you win (straight or flush)


Bye bye aces. You're done with them too.


KK......3......opponent wins (full house)

KX......66......3*22......you win (straight or flush)


Bye bye kings.


QQ......3 ......opponent wins (full house)

QX......57......3*19......you win (straight or flush)


Bye bye queens.


99......1 ......opponent wins (full house)

9X......34......2*17......you win (straight or flush)


Bye bye nines.


88......1 ......opponent wins (full house)

8X......30......2*15......you win (straight or flush)


Bye bye eights.


77......3 ......opponent wins (full house)

7X......36......3*12......you win (straight or flush)


Bye bye sevens.

-----

There are twelve cards left in the pack. Any way they are combined, except as two running diamonds, your opponent will win with a set of jacks or a full house.


dd......6......4*3/2......you win (flush)

XX......60......12*11/2-6......opponent wins


Then to check, you add it all together. The magic number here should be 41*40/2 = 820. If the total of the above isnít 820, I screwed up somewhere. (If you didnít know your opponentís cards, the magic number would be 990). Usually itís easier to run through this process and total because there is no running commentary attempting to explain the process. but as suspicious noted, it's a somewhat tedious process.


I have you ahead 549 to 271 or slightly better than 2 to 1.


Buzz