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View Full Version : Need some help on odds (NO CLUE!!)

Rossmt84
12-08-2003, 11:36 PM
I feel I am a good player and I spend a lot of time studying the game but I do not understand the math part of the game: pot odds, implied odds, "4:1 odds for turning a flush".

I understand how to basically get pot odds but what is considered good? 7:1? 3:1? 15:1?

Why is it ok to keep drawing sometimes based on odds, even if you lose in the end and lose a lot of money?

I have heard stuff that said "In order for this call to be correct, he must collect 22 bets from his opponents in order for the call to be correct"

Sorry im speaking from how I think. i play very well and do great in most games I play but I dont use any math so I feel it help me a lot. Can someone give me a quick lesson. Thanks... if you have any misunderstands on what I asked Ill try to help you out! thanks!

Henke
12-09-2003, 04:26 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I feel I am a good player and I spend a lot of time studying the game but I do not understand the math part of the game: pot odds, implied odds, "4:1 odds for turning a flush".

I understand how to basically get pot odds but what is considered good? 7:1? 3:1? 15:1?

[/ QUOTE ]
What's good depends on your hand. For example, let's say you have A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, and the flop contained two hearts. The river was a blank. You now have 9 cards that will give you the flush (9 outs) which gives 37:9 (or about 4.11:1) against you improving to a flush. This means that the pot odds are in your favour if the pot is bigger than 4.11 times what you would have to call. So if you would have to call \$1, the pot would have to be bigger than \$4.11, otherwize it's a loosing call.

[ QUOTE ]
Why is it ok to keep drawing sometimes based on odds, even if you lose in the end and lose a lot of money?

[/ QUOTE ]
Let's continue with the example from above. Say the pot contains \$5, and that you have to call a bet of \$1 from your only opponent. We can also simplify things and say that your opponent won't call another bet on the river if a /images/graemlins/heart.gif falls, and you won't call his bet if a non heart falls. On average, you will loose this pot 37 times and win 9 times out of 46. From this we can calculate your expected value (which sort of means the "average gain or loss"):
EV: 9/46*5-37/46*1=0.1739
This means that on average, this call would make you \$0.1739. If the pot only contained \$4, you would instead loose about two cents on average when you made this call.

[ QUOTE ]

I have heard stuff that said "In order for this call to be correct, he must collect 22 bets from his opponents in order for the call to be correct"

[/ QUOTE ]
That means the odds against him making his hand are 22:1.

[ QUOTE ]

Sorry im speaking from how I think. i play very well and do great in most games I play but I dont use any math so I feel it help me a lot. Can someone give me a quick lesson. Thanks... if you have any misunderstands on what I asked Ill try to help you out! thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you really need to give this some thought, because this is the foundations on which poker is built. Poker is not a card game, it's a game of money and odds.

MrBlini
12-10-2003, 09:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I feel I am a good player and I spend a lot of time studying the game but I do not understand the math part of the game: pot odds, implied odds, "4:1 odds for turning a flush".

I understand how to basically get pot odds but what is considered good? 7:1? 3:1? 15:1?

Why is it ok to keep drawing sometimes based on odds, even if you lose in the end and lose a lot of money?

[/ QUOTE ]Pot odds are the ratio that the pot is "offering" you on the proposition that you will win the hand.

You should usually draw if the pot is offering you significantly more to draw than the odds of making the draw itself. That's a gamble with positive expectation, meaning you will win more than you put at risk overall. It doesn't matter how often you win as long as the size of the pot is large enough to offset all the times you lose. When the pot odds are very large (such as 15:1), you can afford to draw to some real longshots (like a nut gutshot, 10.5:1 on the next card) because the payoff is so huge. When the pot odds are very small (such as 3:1), you could have an excellent draw and not be able to afford it because you're chasing so little money.

Implied odds are based on what you expect your profit will be if you make the draw and play the hand out, with other players betting and calling your bets along the way. Implied odds are what the pot is offering you now plus what other players will offer you later. Speculative hands sometimes have implied odds that are much better than the pot odds. When you do make these hands, you're going to get paid off by the pot and by the other players still vying for it!

Here's an example that should help with implied odds:
You hold 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the button. Presto! But should you play it?

Let's say four players limp in front of you. Along with the blinds, the pot is offering you pot odds of 5.5:1. (5.5 is exactly the number of small bets in the pot when the action is on you).

The odds of making a set or better on the flop are 7.5:1. This alone is not enough to justify calling, because the pot is not offering you nearly enough. If the game ended at the moment the flop was turned over, you'd surely lose money by playing this. 55 just won't win its share of flops against so many limpers.

But 55 is playable in this situation as long as betting will take place after the flop. Although the odds against making a set or better are 7.5:1, if you do make a set, the final pot is likely to contain many more small bets than the 5.5 currently in there, and you'll take it down most of the time! The implied odds are a lot better than the pot odds of 5.5:1. They are usually even more than the 7.5:1 odds of flopping a set or better, so calling preflop with Presto on the button is an easy decision in this situation.

Of course, many experienced players will automatically play a small pair in late position after a bunch of limpers without thinking about pot odds or implied odds, but the fundamental reason for doing so is that the implied odds exceed the odds of winning the hand. That's the sweet smell of money.