View Full Version : Impossability ?????

08-07-2002, 01:05 PM
i have trusted friend who plays .05 cent slot machines 10 times per month records wins and losses has been ahead 72 months in a row 1st loss last month is this statisticly possible i read 2+2 alot ithas helped my poker playing and iwant to thank all you posters any thoughts apreciated

08-07-2002, 01:47 PM
- how long are his sessions, and how many pulls per session?

- what is the payback percentage of the slot machine

- what is the machine's standard deviation (I imagine this would be the most difficult to figure out, since you would need to determine the frequency that each payout level hits)

In any event, if he plays 'x' hrs per session, at 'y' pulls per hour, on a 'z' percent payback machine with a 'sd' standard deviation per pull, the odds of this event occuring is (I think):

72*(1- normdist({10xy*(1-z)}/{sd*sqrt(10xy)}))

To break it down:

EV/month = -10xy*(1-z)

SD/month = sd*sqrt(10xy)

Num +SD's needed to overcome house edge =

(-EV/month) / (SD/month)

Prob of this many +SD's or better =

1 - normsdist{(-EV/month) / (SD/month)}

Prob of overcoming this many SD's 72 months in a row = 72 * (prob of this many +SD's or better)

The main problem is in finding the SD/pull of the machine. Other than that I think it is fairly straightforward. Please correct me if I am way off, or if there is a much easier way to do this.

-- Homer

08-07-2002, 02:24 PM
every single month for 72 months he has won?

Let's say he even had a 50/50 shot at winning each month (which is not true, it is extremely lower than that).

Then the chances to win 72 months in a row is 1 in 2 to the 72.

That comes out to over 4 then 21 zeros.

So basically that is just about impossible as if everybody on earth was to play, nobody would win 72 consecutive months in a row.

08-07-2002, 03:10 PM
I dont know much about slots but i believe nickles have lowest payback 88% or less. he doesent play hours but starts with 40$ when thats gone he leaves if winning will stay up to 4 hrs if any one else told me this id call him a liar