View Full Version : Playing at a loss, and a budget, on purpose

11-29-2003, 08:59 PM
I've seen BruceZ's great post explaining how to calculate risk of ruin over an infinite period of time, but I've been finding myself wondering a slightly different question. How do I go about finding the risk of ruin for particular length of time?

I'm going to Vegas for a week in January with the intention of playing at a loss, in games that are too tough for me. Seeing as this is my actual plan, I'm trying to formulate a budget for this little adventure.

For what it's worth, the biggest game I currently take shots at live is 20/40, where I've played 20 hours at a 0.4 BB/hr win rate and a 14.2 BB/hr standard deviation. I've also logged 14 hours of 15/30 at a 0.62 BB/hr win rate, with a 17.3 BB/hr standard deviation, and 95 hours of 10/20 where I'm at a 1.5 BB/hr win rate, and a standard deviation of 18.2 BB/hr.

I'm thinking that a reasonable estimate would be that I'd lose 2BB/hr at 40/80. It would seem that for planning purposes I should just use the highest of my "known" standard deviation figures.

How do I go about figuring out how much money I should have if I want to play at least 30 hours of 40/80 with a ten percent chance of losing the stake before the week is up?

12-01-2003, 12:06 PM
I am planning to jump out of a plane wearing nothing but a grand piano and an anchor. I have swum Niagara falls with a rubber ducky and a bean bag, and I have wrestled crocodiles in boiling quicksand, with moderate success. Could someone please analyse the physics of my planned jump, including terminal velocity, piano string resonance, and risk of ruin.

12-01-2003, 05:42 PM
I don't need help beyond what the equation is for the risk of ruin over a given period of time. I guess I should've just asked the question out of context.

Some people might note that there's a fairly sizeable difference between death, and spending $10,000. I have realistic expectations as to the outcome, and it's budgeted as an entertainment expense. That being said, if my best guesses show that $10k will only last day and a half, I'd rather waste my money by becoming dead money in a big tourney than by experiencing bigger limit ring games.

12-02-2003, 08:47 PM
Homer J. Simpson posted the short-term risk of ruin formula from Blackjack Attack here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=holdem&Number=387173&Forum =All_Forums&Words=blackjack%20attack&Match=Entire% 20Phrase&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Old=6months&Main=38 6780&Search=true#Post387173) .

12-03-2003, 12:53 AM
LMAO, ...