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View Full Version : Playing at a loss, and a budget, on purpose

mosch
11-29-2003, 08:59 PM
I've seen BruceZ's great post explaining how to calculate risk of ruin over an infinite period of time, but I've been finding myself wondering a slightly different question. How do I go about finding the risk of ruin for particular length of time?

I'm going to Vegas for a week in January with the intention of playing at a loss, in games that are too tough for me. Seeing as this is my actual plan, I'm trying to formulate a budget for this little adventure.

For what it's worth, the biggest game I currently take shots at live is 20/40, where I've played 20 hours at a 0.4 BB/hr win rate and a 14.2 BB/hr standard deviation. I've also logged 14 hours of 15/30 at a 0.62 BB/hr win rate, with a 17.3 BB/hr standard deviation, and 95 hours of 10/20 where I'm at a 1.5 BB/hr win rate, and a standard deviation of 18.2 BB/hr.

I'm thinking that a reasonable estimate would be that I'd lose 2BB/hr at 40/80. It would seem that for planning purposes I should just use the highest of my "known" standard deviation figures.

How do I go about figuring out how much money I should have if I want to play at least 30 hours of 40/80 with a ten percent chance of losing the stake before the week is up?

thylacine
12-01-2003, 12:06 PM
I am planning to jump out of a plane wearing nothing but a grand piano and an anchor. I have swum Niagara falls with a rubber ducky and a bean bag, and I have wrestled crocodiles in boiling quicksand, with moderate success. Could someone please analyse the physics of my planned jump, including terminal velocity, piano string resonance, and risk of ruin.

mosch
12-01-2003, 05:42 PM
I don't need help beyond what the equation is for the risk of ruin over a given period of time. I guess I should've just asked the question out of context.

Some people might note that there's a fairly sizeable difference between death, and spending \$10,000. I have realistic expectations as to the outcome, and it's budgeted as an entertainment expense. That being said, if my best guesses show that \$10k will only last day and a half, I'd rather waste my money by becoming dead money in a big tourney than by experiencing bigger limit ring games.

Robk
12-02-2003, 08:47 PM
Homer J. Simpson posted the short-term risk of ruin formula from Blackjack Attack here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=holdem&amp;Number=387173&amp;Forum =All_Forums&amp;Words=blackjack%20attack&amp;Match=Entire% 20Phrase&amp;Searchpage=0&amp;Limit=25&amp;Old=6months&amp;Main=38 6780&amp;Search=true#Post387173) .

krazyace5
12-03-2003, 12:53 AM
LMAO, ...