View Full Version : Maximum streak/winning percentage?

10-31-2003, 06:20 PM

Although this has no practical purposes except to satisfy an academic curiosity, I am wondering if there is any rough formula one could employ to determine the likelihood of an extended streak of winning sessions.
I certainly see the difficulties in the question. For instance, it is more likely to have a long streak in no limit rather than limit due to the skill vs luck factor. It is also impossible to rate your oppositions skill in a concrete way - for instance, it might be possible if we played stud eight or better in a private game of the most passive folks in the country for you to never lose - but let's say, realistically in an area with multiple large public cardrooms such as LA or LV playing middle-limit games - could one come up with a predictable maximum length of streak or maximum percentage wins? I am not speaking of the player who will play 5 minutes per day 6 days because he won the first hand and cash out and then get stuck and play 5 days to get a win - I am strictly speaking of someone who practices good game selection and leaves when appropriate (the game is no longer good, tired, or emotionally upset etc).
Thanks in advance for any thoughts on the matter.

10-31-2003, 08:47 PM
Well, let me try it for a few reasonable #'s: a 1BB/hr. winner with a 10BB/sqrt(hr) SD, uniform 4 hr sessions. This player will win 57.9% of his sessions, so the chance he will win his next 5 is 6.5%.

Perhaps someone else can figure out longest streak for 100 (or whatever) sessions, but I'd guess 8.


11-02-2003, 03:18 AM

Well, we aren't getting alot of traffic on this post so I'll thank you for your response and I'll open myself up for flames in an effort to get this going. I played a total of 28 sessions in October on 20 seperate days. I play two shorter sessions per day twice a week when I have a hotel room to go to. I have only 2 sessions over 6 hours - neither of them had be behind at the 6 hour mark - I stayed because the game was becoming better faster than my stamina was declining. In the 28 sessions I have 28 wins. So I'm going to suppose that the max streak is somewhat in excess of 28. I choose my games carefully and play limited sessions when I am at my peak but do not consider myself extraordinary at the table and am not trying to imply otherwise. I am not suggesting anything by these numbers - I am simply curious how max 'max' is.

11-02-2003, 12:42 PM
To get this sort of streak, you are almost certainly better than 1BB or have a very low SD.


11-03-2003, 06:01 PM
Wow 28 straight winning sessions!!! That seems almost unbelieveable. For me its two or three winning sessions at most. Two steps forward, one step back. Two steps forward, one step back.

Is it possible that you are not counting up your bankroll correctly???