View Full Version : Dead cards

10-30-2003, 09:55 AM
I have not tried working through the math yet, but I wonder if there is any merit to the following consideration in the probabilities.

Assume TH with 10 players. 7 players fold before the flop. The 45 unseen cards fall into 3 categories: folded(14 cards), opponents(4 cards) and deck(27 cards).

Obviously there are only the 27 deck cards to draw from. Maybe in the math everything cancels out and you still have to base everything on the 45.

Any thoughts?

TIA, Tom

10-30-2003, 11:46 AM
You cann't distinguish between cards that have been folded and cards that are still in play. Since they are all unseen to you--you have to count them.

10-30-2003, 12:34 PM
NoTalent, while it is true on a "blind" basis that all unseen cards should be counted, you can often do better than those random probabilities by considering the action to that point. It is particularly valuable when looking at your own outs, and you may want to adjust those random probabilities for an unusual number of callers, folders and or raisers.

Eg with several cold callers to a raise catching a high card may be more difficult than random, a small card a little easier. Conversely if everyone folds to a Button or SB that is likely to steal and there is a raise, you still dont want to assume he is only a random hand since earlier high cards might well have led to a caller or two. You also are likely to have a somewhat better than random draw to high cards and worse than random draw to low cards (to complete a straight, eg).