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1800GAMBLER
10-28-2003, 01:02 PM
Anything we could assume for his next 6 months? Could we safely assume he'll be making that amount within a +/- range of how much?

Homer
10-28-2003, 03:31 PM
Do we know his hourly win rate and standard deviation? If so, this can be solved quite easily.

As an example, let's assume his win rate is \$30/hr, his standard deviation is \$300/hr, and and he plays 45 hrs/wk.

In the next 6 months, he'll play 1170 hrs (45*26). His EV is \$35,100 (30*1170) and his SD is \$10261.58 (300*sqrt(1170))

With this information we can figure out various things, such as the probability of losing money, making \$40,000 or more, etc.

1) Probability of losing money:

35,100 + 10,261*SD = 0

SD = -3.42

It would take a -3.42 SD event or worse for David to lose money in the next six months. The probability of this happening is .031%, which is about 3/10,000. To solve for this I used Excel (=-normsdist(-3.42)).

2) Probability of making \$40,000 of more:

35100 + 10261*SD = 40000

SD = .477

Probability of making \$40,000 or more = 31.6% (=1-normsdist(.477))

-- Homer

1800GAMBLER
10-28-2003, 03:53 PM
Thanks. Interesting stuff. One last one.

Probability he makes the same again within \$10k either way?

Homer
10-28-2003, 04:25 PM
Probability he makes the same again within \$10k either way?

Just to refresh:

EV = \$35,100
SD = \$10,261

You want to know the probability that he makes between \$25,100 and \$45,100.

1) Probability of making less than \$45,100:

35,100 + 10,261*SD = 45,100

SD &lt;= .975

2) Probability of making more than \$25,100:

35,100 + 10,261*SD = 25,100

SD &gt;= -.975

3) Probability of making between \$25,100 and \$45,100:

Essentially, we want to know the probability that his SD is between -.975 and .975.

P = 1 - 2*normsdist(-.975) = 67%

-- Homer

1800GAMBLER
10-28-2003, 04:50 PM
Thanks again. Hoped that percentage would be higher. The EV should increase over the next 6 months with the increase interested in poker though, so we have that hope.

Infact thinking about that, those results he has were based in a time we had the WSOP boost. So it would have to be a larger boost than that, or we could expect less EV. But of course, all our games are ever improving.

Thanks again for the maths.