View Full Version : Probability of this outcome

10-23-2003, 12:19 AM
Hello everyone. This is my first post here after reading these forums for some time now. I've been playing poker for about a year now. But only seriously been thinking about it for maybe 6 months. While playing in a NL tournament at party, I was dealt 10/10 in MP. The blinds were 10/15. Very early in the tournament. I raised to 90. I get 4 callers. The flop comes Ace, Queen, 10 (rainbow). Guy in first position bets 200. I raise all-in. Everyone folds, but the original better who calls. The turn comes ace, and the river comes king. I receive the message that I'm out of the tournament. My opponent flips over A/K. Now as it appears to me the only way for him to beat my full house is for an ace to fall and a king.

I am trying to improve my math on this, so I would like to know if I did the math correctly to figure out the probability of this happening. He must have an ace fall, which is 2/47, and he needs a king to fall which is 3/46. To calculate the probability of this happening, do I just multiply these two numbers together? Thanks in advance.

10-23-2003, 02:00 AM
No, for three reasons. 1) if he needed AK, it could come AK (2/45*3/44) or KA for 2*2/45*3/44, that is, just multiplying doesn't account for the different orders possible (and you can't count his cards as unseen cards). 2) he could also hit AA or KK. total chance of AA, KK, or AK =5/45*4/44=1.01%. 3) he can also beat you with a J (no pair) (4*35/990) or AQ (2*3/990) or QQ (3/990) and tie you with KJ (12/990). And he may also have runner-runner flushes if he is suited (together with the Q or T).

Not such a bad beat,

10-23-2003, 07:05 AM
Not such a bad beat, plus raising with TT in MP early in a tourney is too loose.