View Full Version : Problem w/ pot odss

James Boston
10-20-2003, 11:29 PM
Here's a question about pot odds. Perhaps I'm just thinking about this wrong. (* for the sake of making this simple I will use a flush draw for all examples) I know (based on reading) that with four cards to a flush after the flop you are 2-1 against making it with two cards to come. But, you are 4-1 against making it on the next card. Shouldn't this be how your decision is made? If 2-1 gives you acceptable pot odds, but you don't get the card, you can't continue using the 2-1 odds for the next round of betting. It seems to me that if 4-1 gives you correct pot odds, you should bet. If you make your flush, play it accordingly. If you don't make your flush. Re-calculate the pot odds after the turn and determine if staying in the hand is still justifiable. Is my thinking on this wrong?

10-21-2003, 12:26 AM
Your thinking is not bad here but it appears that you did not go far enough. You are considering your immediate pot odds but in calculating whether to continue you need to also include the implied odds which you would recieve if you hit your hand. In the worst of circumstances you and one opponent are in the blinds and you take the flop heads up. If you flop the nut flush draw and your opponent bets, you are getting 3:1 immediate pot odds but if your opponent will call one bet on the turn or river just 50% of the time (using your 4:1 estimate) - you have sufficient odds for a call. If you don't make your hand on the turn then, as you point out, you have a new calculation. The propensity of your opponent to call a bet on the river will define your action.

10-21-2003, 12:43 PM
You should be using 4-1 on the flop and the turn. Do not use 2-1 on the flop unless you are all in at that point. Figure the odds of making your hand on the next card, then adjust for the implied odds of future rounds of betting.

When you use the 2-1 figure you are assuming that you will go to showdown for the cost of 1 bet, which is rarely the case. Figure your odds on a street by street basis and you won't go wrong.