View Full Version : Blackjack Probability Question

10-19-2003, 01:15 PM
Help BruceZ, Copernicus, Legato, and others.

Intercasino is offering $80 in matching funds for an $80 deposit. You can do this each month. You can withdraw the bonus after wagering 20x the bonus amount or $1600. I think you can use the bonus money for wagering.

1. I think the dealer hits on soft 17, but am not sure. I have to double check.

2. Does anyone know of a reliable website which provides optimal basic strategy for various situations, based on number of decks and dealer's required strategy (hit or stand on soft 17 or 16, for example.)

3. So my main question is, even following basic strategy, one website states that the house still has a .66% edge, whatever that means.

a. If you play at $2 a hand and do this every month, and play optimal strategy (without card counting), does the fact that the house is giving you $80 in matching fees OVERCOME the house edge in the sense that it is worth it for you to try to wager the $1600 dollars and try to take home the bonus. I have no idea how to calculate this or how to figure out WHAT THIS EDGE REALLY MEANS over 800 hands of play at $2 per hand.

Please help.

10-19-2003, 01:32 PM
The edge is the amount the casino stands to gain on each bet. So with an edge of 1% the casino's EV on a $100 bet is $1. If the edge truely is .66% then the casino's EV on $1600 worth of bets should be .0066*1600=$10.56 so its seems like a good idea if you can clear $80. That edge might be a little low for an online BJ game, but the edge can't possibly be more than the 5% needed to make your bonus whoring a bad deal without them actually cheating you.

10-19-2003, 05:53 PM
You ask me for help after being the jerk u was in the other thread, and never apologized? Pathetic.

This is what u wrote, among others:

"I have made over $10 million U.S. dollars over the past decade through online poker bonuses. So I believe Legato of Sweden. I could provide you with the spreadsheets, as proof, but I have no idea what a spreadsheet is. Is that the large piece of cotton fabric that you place over your
bed? "

I have answers to all your questions, but as it is now I truly hope they will remain unanswered.

10-20-2003, 12:19 AM
Go to Online Blackjack Guide (http://www.onlineblackjackguide.com) any print one of their tables out or just keep it on the side of your screen while you play.

The bonus is $80 and it's COMPLETELY free. They'll give you $80 every month (as long as you deposit more than $80 into their poker room) to play with in their casino. You don't even have to use your own money to clear it. Just sit down with $80. If you lose it, then so be it, it was free $$.

10-20-2003, 12:20 AM
FYI: Say in October you lose the $80 before you bet $1600. Say you only made $1000 in total bets. Then in November, you deposit another $100 to the poker room and get another $80. You now have to bet a total of $2200 ($1600 + $600 from October).

10-20-2003, 05:17 PM
Here's the link to the guy (http://webhome.idirect.com/~blakjack/index.html) from whom I learned to blackjack bonus whore. Good luck.

10-20-2003, 06:27 PM
Thanks nottom, LondonB, and Chippie. I tried playing on Sunday and after about 3 hours of play at $2 a bet, cleared my bonus of $80. Initially I started with an $80 deposit and an $80 bonus for a bankroll of $60. I was up and down between $160 and $205 for the longest time, never dropping below $160 for the first two or two and a half hours. THen just as I reached my last 100 of 800 hands or so at $2 a bet, I start losing and losing and losing.

Unbelievable!!! It felt like the damn game was fixed.

Just as I cleared the bonus I was up about only $20 with a bankroll of $100. My $80,plus only $20 of the initial $80 bonus.

PISSED OFF AS HELL I start betting $5 per hand to get even. After a few hands I am at 80.50. Then I realize that I have to pay $1 to wire the money back to my neteller account.

So I am actually out .50 after all that effort.


But maybe I will wait until next month and try again. I hope Intercasino is not fixed.

10-20-2003, 08:19 PM
PISSED OFF AS HELL I start betting $5 per hand to get even.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't do this. The bonus gives you an edge in a usually losing game. Standard deviation still applies. Some you win, some you lose, but overall you come out ahead. Keep your bets small.

Don't blow out the bonus in one day, if you get on the blacklist your bonus-getting career is over.

BJPro at the site uses a progression for cover. I played $2 bets and threw in some video poker to mix it up. However you do it, don't let yourself look like a bonus hunter. You want to look like a gamboler! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I will admit though, that even fold/fold/fold poker isn't as much a grind as plowing through all those $2 bets.

10-21-2003, 12:53 PM
The house rules of the game will determine the house edge. The game would have to be ideal to get an edge down to .66 using only basic strategy. I think a 1.4 edge to the house is more common for most games. About the same edge the house has on the pass line in craps without free odds. Before you start pumping money into this site, figure out exactly what the house edge is. I'm sure there are numerous sites that you can plug in the rules and it will tell you the edge. Good luck.

10-22-2003, 02:02 PM
wizard of odds (http://www.wizardofodds.com)

10-23-2003, 08:09 AM
the only casino bonus deals I would bother with are those with auto-play, like RiverBelle. Their strategy tables are optimum. I use the Atlantic City tables with surrender because (I think) it cuts the variance down a bit, and since this is a hit and run for the bonus, who needs variance.

10-23-2003, 06:01 PM
I have never played online casinos for bonuses, but I was wondering about something. If you play craps, do odds bets count towards the bonus? Do they allow you to bet pass and don't pass on the same roll? If the answer to both questions is yes. This would be the ideal way to get your bonus. You could hedge with pass and don't, and with at least 2x odds, your EV would be no worse than blackjack, with very little variance. You would only lose when a 12 rolls on the comeout.