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View Full Version : Hypothetical Hand --Math & Probability Question

LondonBroil
10-16-2003, 01:57 PM
Posted on the small stakes but figured that people here might have a more specific answer..

Suppose your playing any limit and get dealt AA. 4 callers to you, you raise, blinds fold, 4 callers call.

Flop comes AKQ rainbow. Checked to you, you bet, all 4 call.

Turn is a small rag completing the rainbow. 1st player bets, call, call, call, you raise, 1st player 3-bets, call, call, call. Action on you and all 4 callers flip up 10J. Do you...

A. Fold
B. Call
C. Raise

and why?

thylacine
10-16-2003, 02:35 PM
There are 38 cards unknown to you, 10 wins. The others effectively have 7 outs each, since 28 cards are good for them, but they split the pot 4 ways. So you want to raise to get as much money into the pot since 10/38&gt;1/5.

This is assuming none of them will fold to your raise, but they won't since they would easily always have pot odds (or whatever odds) to call, even if one can and does 5-bet it, and regardless of if they know your hand.

This would have an interesting twist if it were NO LIMIT. With the same action (except different bet sizes, you would still certainly at least call, but would you raise and by how much, and then what would your opponents do?