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squiffy
10-10-2003, 02:11 PM
This is a post from another forum. I would like your help calculating the odds involved and knowing what you think is the correct poker answer, just based on conventional wisdom, even aside from the statistics.

I have 33 in the CO and UTG open raises, 5 cold callers later and I cold call in the CO. The hand is pretty straightforward from there as I flopped trips and took a ridiculous pot, but I was wondering if this play is ridiculous or correct. I didn't expect another raise as the button and the blinds were pretty passive both preflop and on the flop.

I thought calling the raise was risky and a losing proposition, depending on the table limits and playing styles as you may be up against higher pocket pairs. Everyone else seems to think it is any easy call.

I think an unraised pot is an easy call from late position with 33. And you might even put in the first raise from late position. But I think calling a raise is a wholly different matter. Even if you hit your set, your opponents could make higher sets. And you will seldom hit your set.

And I don't think you have odds to call the raise.

The odds are 7.5 to 1 that your 33 will flop a set. SO that is 1 chance in 8.5 or about 12%. So calling the raise you will lose 88 big bets, every 100 hands. You will hit your set the other 12 times. But how often will your 333 win the pot out of those 12 times, and how much money will you make if you do win.

Sometimes others will flop a higher set. ANd AA and KK will stay to the river and I have seen them flop higher sets on me before when I was bottom set. Sometimes you will not improve and you will lose to a flush, a straight, or a full house or higher set.

At .50-\$1 limit on Party, the average pot size is \$10-\$14 on Party so about 10-14 BB. There is no guarantee that you will win a huge pot. ANd of those 10-14 BB, some of the money in the pot is yours that you put in, so that may need to be backed out.

I think the problem is much more complicated than the other posters suspect. And they may actually be wrong.

Copernicus
10-10-2003, 02:38 PM
You dont say what the blinds were or the amount of the raise and calls. If its NL relative stack sizes may also enter into the equation.

Assuming the raise was a minimum raise, with 5 cold callers plus 3 to act behind you, and with the BB and maybe the small blind almost certain calls you are getting close to 7/1 odds. You have no additional risk if you dont hit your set, because you are certainly folding. If you do hit a set with a 3 it is a well hidden hand and will get lots of action but conservatively I would think a minimum of another 2 small bets each round, so the implied odds are no worse than 13/1 and could be as high as 25/1.

Will the 3s hold up? There is probably about a 25% chance of a higher pair out there and a 10% chance of two pair. With 4 cards to come (your 3 has taken up one of the 5), the chances of one of those pairs hitting a set is about 16%. So you face a higher set about 8% of the time. Add in runner runners and maybe you lose to a higher set 12% of the time. Factor in other hands that can win and maybe you lose 18% of the time. (When I get to my other computer I'll give you a better number). Discounting your 12% chance of hitting your set on the next card by 18%, you have about a 9.8% chance of hitting and winning, increasing the odds you need to 9.2:1, well less than the minimum of 13:1 implied odds I think you have.

You wondered whether you subtract your own contribution to the pot out of the odds calculation...no, you dont. Once its in the pot, it no longer knows where it came from, and neither do you!

squiffy
10-10-2003, 02:56 PM
Well that is exactly the problem with the original post. I wanted to know the blinds and limits. And other posters kept insisting all that is irrelevant and that this was an easy call. I think you need a lot more information on this to have a meaningful discussion.

Take a look at the thread, I think it is in small limit. Or do a search for 33 and chesspain.

squiffy
10-10-2003, 02:57 PM
I copied that original post from I think the small limits forum and got into a discussion there with other posters. I still am not convinced that their advice is anything other than a WAG.

squiffy
10-10-2003, 03:17 PM

Bozeman
10-10-2003, 05:05 PM
It's an easy call, because at any limit, with that many callers, they will either call (calling stations), or bet (tight aggressive play), though I can't imagine 5/5 cold calls at high limit game. The only possible game that this could be a fold is the unlikely table where no one calls or bets unless they beat a set, and you don't bluff at the pot.

Also note, you are in great position WRT the preflop raiser, if he bets the flop, you can raise after some of the people in the middle call, and then they are then also stuck for one more bet if UTG doesn't reraise.

Craig

ThingDo
10-10-2003, 10:44 PM
Well, I was the poster so maybe I can offer some more information... allthough I don't think it matters in this case. It was 3/6 and the blind structure is 1 SB and 1/3 a SB. ( \$3 and \$1 ). I might be missing something, but I'm failing to see how the limit changes anything

Bozeman
10-10-2003, 11:15 PM
It only changes the likely style of play, but my point is there is no significant style of limit play that makes this a -EV play.

ACPlayer
10-11-2003, 07:01 PM
I agree its a call, as long as the game texture is such that you are likely to get paid off in a couple of spots even after showing lots of strength.

If post flop play is tight and nitty it may not be worth it (tho I probably would do so anyway).