View Full Version : anyone notice this?

10-10-2003, 12:00 PM
watching the WSOP replay and i see that they have this matchup all in:

board: K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
hoang: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif
nguyen: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

the percentage they had listed for hoang is 73%. i thought to myself, that sounds ridiculous! sure enough, twodimes gives me 94.5%.

anyone think they have an idea where espn got the 73% figure from?

10-10-2003, 12:34 PM
If the 2 were a H instead of a D it cuts it down to 71%. Thats the only thing I see that is close

10-10-2003, 04:30 PM
Thay probally included the folded hole cards of the other players as dead cards to get this figure.

10-10-2003, 04:39 PM
Great suggestion!!!!

10-10-2003, 04:48 PM
I think the 2H reason given above is most likely.

Even if all 8 players folded cards that couldn't help Scotty you still only get ...

pokenum -h kc ks - ah kd -- kh 3h 2d / 3d 3c 3s 2s 2c 6c 7c 8c 9c 9s 8s 7s 6s 7d 6d 8d
Holdem Hi: 406 enumerated boards containing 2d Kh 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kc 352 86.70 54 13.30 0 0.00 0.867
Kd Ah 54 13.30 352 86.70 0 0.00 0.133

... which is still a good 13% off.

I just thought it was amazing to see someone lay a hand down.

10-10-2003, 05:04 PM
Actually I like the other explanation better than a mistake that still doesnt get to the right number.

While you enumerated the chances if a lot of cards that couldnt help him were folded, what you dont know (that they might know) is whether some cards that COULD help him were already mucked.

That brings up what I think is a deficiency in their presentation. It would be more instructive to show not what the actual probabilities are, but what the player in the lead THINKS his probability is (or both).