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kamelion44
09-19-2003, 06:30 AM
Hi all, I was wondering if you could run a quick course in pot odds and probability for a beginner poker player. I went up around \$1400 playing 2-4 and 3-6 Limit, but I have since then lost a large portion of that playing No Limit and Tournaments...but I have become convinced that I don't understand pot odds, or the formula I had been using, I had the variables/terminology wrong, and therefore am calling/raising in incorrect positions or by incorrect amounts, and this is especially terrible in tournaments when mistakes are so costly and in NL when I can really screw up with that much betting freedom...can someone just run the basics by me (even things as low level as: if I have an open ended straight draw with a rainbow flop...that's 8 outs, for something like a 34% possibility of making my straight which I'm confident will be the nuts...and say the pot is \$12 and a guy makes it \$4 to go...what's the exact formula for decision making here?). Thanks alot in advance.

NoTalent
09-19-2003, 10:48 AM
Welcome to the forums! I'm new here too, but I've found plenty of discussions about pot odds (even EasyTiger's post right below this has some good info) in this probability seciton. You can search for 'pot odds' and see what you get.

Good luck! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Odder
09-22-2003, 11:52 AM
you have 8 outs, so that means odds are 4.875 to 1(39/8) to make your straight..

the pot is \$12 plus the \$4 bet so its now \$16, you are getting pot odds of 4 to 1(\$16/\$4)

a general rule is that if pot odds are lower than your odds of making the hand you should fold, if the pot odds are greater then you are getting correct odds for you to call the bet or even raise

in this scenario, its a close one, odds say there should be \$19.50(4.875x\$4) in the pot for a call here, and there is only \$16 in the pot, so folding would be correct in terms of pot odds

happyjaypee
09-22-2003, 08:41 PM
You made a little mistake Odder. You only calculated the odds of making the open-ender whit 1 card to come.

In Hold'em, whit 2 cards to come, the formula should look like this:

(8/47)+(8/46)*(1-8/47)
= 0.1702 + 0.1739 * 0.8298
= 0.1702 + 0.1443
= 0.3145

So you got 31.45% chance, or 2.17 to 1, of making the straight whit TWO CARDS TO COME.

Round the odds of making it to 2:1

So whit 12\$ in the pot and a 4\$ bet you need to call 4\$ to win 16\$. You are getting 16:4 or 4:1 on the call whit 2:1 of making your hand. Of course the opponent may bet again on the turn and ruin your odds. That's why it is advice to only play draws in position in NL, A chk out of position on the turn screems a draw an many opponent will charge you again in this spot, destroying your odds.

When in position, say you got your straight draw whit two overcard like Q /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif on a 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif, you might want to raise and take a free card on the turn. Any Q or J may win you the pot. Also note the backdoor flush potential witch can be very valuable because your opponent will not fear two running hearts hitting.

-Happy /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Copernicus
09-22-2003, 09:17 PM
Odder may have made a mistake, and may not have made a mistake. If it is clear that you arent going to have the odds to draw the second card (ie you will have less than 4.9/1), then you can only play if you have the odds to hit it on the first card. (eg you are only getting 2 small bets/1 now and there is only one other player in the hand. If you call his bet there will be 4 small bets/2 big bets in the pot after the turn. If he now makes a big bet you are only getting 3/1 not 4.9/1 and wont be able to call, therefore you cant call on the flop either.

Another way to look at it is it will cost you a minimum of 1.5 big bets to see two cards. The pot (not counting your additional 1.5 bets) will be the current 1 big bet, plus the opponents 1.5 big bets, or 2.5/1.5, which isnt enough to call "both cards in advance" and you arent getting one draw odds either, so you should be folding. Even if you think he will call a raise when you hit you are only getting 3.5/1.5. (note that I didnt change it to 3.5/2.5 because presumably that extra raise has no risk of loss..you only raise if you hit, and if you hit you assume you are the winner. If there is some risk that you still wont win even if you hit, you either must reduce your outs for those that help the opponents hand also, or add a portion of the additional bet to the denominator to represent the amount of it that might lose. This is more general version of the standard "implied odds" calculation, which, by only including the current bet in the denominator, is assuming there is no risk associated with any future bets).

happyjaypee
09-22-2003, 10:34 PM
Yes copernicus, has stated in my 1st post, the opponent might very well bet again on the turn, ruinning your odds.

However, 95% of my poker experience comes from NL Hold'em and I win big at it. And I'm definetly not folding an open-ended str8 draw to the nuts for 4\$ in a 16\$ pot.

The open str8 draw has 1 less out then the flush draw (8 compared to 9) but it does have the benefit of being harder to spot then a obvious 3 flush on board. So it's easier to get paid big on it. Also consider that, in NL, your goal is to get the opponent entire stack. Whit an open ender nut str8 draw, I'd routinely call a pot bet on the flop when the money is deep. Yes a pot bet shows strengh, but a strong hand IS what you want your opponent to be holding in case you hit so you get a chance to double trough. I will often lay my draw to further aggression on the turn here, but the times I clean my opponent out of his entire stack well cover those small loses.

kamelion44's original question was about how to figure the outs. For a torough discusion on how to play those draws, I suggest you post this hand in the PL &amp; NL forum.

Hope it helps

-Happy /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

happyjaypee
09-22-2003, 11:11 PM
This is a great thread about playing drawing hands in PL &amp; NL Hold'em Games. It was posted by "Al Capone Junior" last June in the PL &amp; NL forum.

Enjoy!

-Happy /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

kamelion44
09-23-2003, 08:17 AM
Thanks for all the help guys, much appreciated.

PipeWalker
04-24-2004, 03:27 AM
Happy WroteIn Hold'em, whit 2 cards to come, the formula should look like this:

(8/47)+(8/46)*(1-8/47)
= 0.1702 + 0.1739 * 0.8298
= 0.1702 + 0.1443
= 0.3145

So you got 31.45% chance, or 2.17 to 1, of making the straight whit TWO CARDS TO COME.

Round the odds of making it to 2:1

So whit 12\$ in the pot and a 4\$ bet you need to call 4\$ to win 16\$. You are getting 16:4 or 4:1 on the call whit 2:1 of making your hand. Of course the opponent may bet again on the turn and ruin your odds. That's why it is advice to only play draws in position in NL, A chk out of position on the turn screems a draw an many opponent will charge you again in this spot, destroying your odds.

When in position, say you got your straight draw whit two overcard like Q J on a 2 9 T , you might want to raise and take a free card on the turn. Any Q or J may win you the pot. Also note the backdoor flush potential witch can be very valuable because your opponent will not fear two running hearts hitting.

-----------------------------------------------------
I understand how he came up with (8/46)+(8/47) for the 2 cards and outs and cards he hasnt seen remaining but how did he and what is the (1-8/47) and how do you add divide or what ever you did to that to come up with 0.8298 Ok at the end he ends with 0.3145 that = 31.45 get that but at then he changes it to 2.17-1 dont see how he got that either then he got the pot odds 16\$ in pot 4\$ to call 4-1 get that so your odds vs pot odds are 2.17-1 to 4-1 get that also wondering how much better do your odds need to be verses you pot odds to justify a call i dont even know if 4-1 2-1 is better if someone could explain that too would be awsome thats all for now ; p

mostsmooth
04-24-2004, 09:16 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Happy WroteIn Hold'em, whit 2 cards to come, the formula should look like this:

(8/47)+(8/46)*(1-8/47)
= 0.1702 + 0.1739 * 0.8298
= 0.1702 + 0.1443
= 0.3145

So you got 31.45% chance, or 2.17 to 1, of making the straight whit TWO CARDS TO COME.

Round the odds of making it to 2:1

So whit 12\$ in the pot and a 4\$ bet you need to call 4\$ to win 16\$. You are getting 16:4 or 4:1 on the call whit 2:1 of making your hand. Of course the opponent may bet again on the turn and ruin your odds. That's why it is advice to only play draws in position in NL, A chk out of position on the turn screems a draw an many opponent will charge you again in this spot, destroying your odds.

When in position, say you got your straight draw whit two overcard like Q J on a 2 9 T , you might want to raise and take a free card on the turn. Any Q or J may win you the pot. Also note the backdoor flush potential witch can be very valuable because your opponent will not fear two running hearts hitting.

-----------------------------------------------------
I understand how he came up with (8/46)+(8/47) for the 2 cards and outs and cards he hasnt seen remaining but how did he and what is the (1-8/47) and how do you add divide or what ever you did to that to come up with 0.8298 Ok at the end he ends with 0.3145 that = 31.45 get that but at then he changes it to 2.17-1 dont see how he got that either then he got the pot odds 16\$ in pot 4\$ to call 4-1 get that so your odds vs pot odds are 2.17-1 to 4-1 get that also wondering how much better do your odds need to be verses you pot odds to justify a call i dont even know if 4-1 2-1 is better if someone could explain that too would be awsome thats all for now ; p

[/ QUOTE ]
heres a different formula for the same answer:
1-(39/47)*(38/46)

M.B.E.
04-25-2004, 12:02 AM
Since someone bumped this thread, does anyone know what happened to Copernicus? He had some great posts, but has not been around here for a while (unless under a different name).