View Full Version : Correct Hand Analysis?

08-25-2003, 04:40 PM
Here is a post I found on a yahoo newsgroup. I'd like to hear what others think of this analysis. Thanks!

JCT: I've been told I'm the best value bettor some people
have ever seen and it all comes down to a simple twist in
thinking. How could I be called "the Professor" at the Taj
and also be called "The Maniac" by others in the same game?
Here's a great example of the most important value betting
technique in my arsenal.

>From: "ronfal" <rfaltinsky@earthlink.net>
>Date: Mon Aug 25, 2003 9:47 am
>Subject: Turmel2Step in action

JCT: Ron's found no new errors or typos in my Quiz Answers
so we can be pretty sure they're right now. Maybe it's time
to do a print publication now that someone's checked my
numbers. And yet, there are some subtle tweaks that could
still be included.

RF: I recently won a pot in a very "tasty" 20/40 holdem game
that I never would have won without using the Turmel2Step.

I had raised in early position with AdJc and got 5 callers!
The flop came Kc3h7c. I checked and there was a bet and 3
callers when it got around to me. At this point I ordinarily
would have mucked the hand without giving it a second
thought even though the pot was offering 16/1 odds. I would
consider that I basically only had 2 aces as outs because
the Ac would probably make a flush. I also never really
included backdoor draws in my calculations until I studied
the TajProfessor's brilliant Odds System!

Using the Turmel2Step it was easy to determine that I had a
very nice overlay to call the bet. Quickly adding up the
combined probabilities of 3 aces, a backdoor straight,
and flush pros and cons (I held the Jc), it was obvious
that a call was in order since I was only about a 10/1

The turn was a 2c and everyone checked. The river was the Jd
and we all checked again. Amazingly no one could beat my
pair of jacks!

JCT: It's not so amazing and here's where The Maniac would
have bet out into four opponents.

RF: (That was one out I never counted on!)

JCT: It's true I don't compute the chances of hitting
runner-runner two-pairs or threes because that probability
is always there for everyone and many times, they get out-
kicked. How much is it worth? Using our magic 2162
denominator, 6 cards hit our first pair and 5 cards make the
second pair or trips which is 2162/30 or 71:1. 1.4%. You hit
1.4% of the time and lose many times. Call it a given.

RF: I made a profit of $320 using a system that only costs
$20! And that was only one pot...I expect to make many
thousands more! Thank you TajProfessor! Ron

JCT: The strategy that permitted me to make a profit of
$360 or even $400 when my opponents had paired up on their
Jacks or 7s or even 3s.

When no one bet on the turn, you have to assume no one hit
the flush yet, and probably that no one's protecting a King.

When the Jack hits your hand to make you the next best pair
with boss kicker, you know you're going to call any single
bet. And your bet should be intimidating enough to turn
everyone into callers unless you're really beaten.

So you may as well bet in the hopes of catching the
lesser hands if you're the winner.

In this situation with a multi-way pot, you know there are a
lot of small cards out there and the good chance your Jack
is the boss pair.

So when you know you're going to call and you know your bet
is going to be scary enough to dissuade raising without real
power, that's the perfect time to value bet.

Every time there's a king out there, you'll lose another
bet. So bet, and sure, when there's a King out there, you'll
lost an extra bet. But when there isn't a King, now you'll
gain an extra bet.

So the very best kind of such value bets on spec are when:
1) you're going to call one more single bet anyway;
2) it takes real power to raise you and you'll be able to
comfortably fold. A table protected by four other players
should make a raise very unlikely.

So, since it's going to cost you 1 more bet anyway, put it
in first and then fold like you were bluffing if the table
is raised.

I'm sure I'll get some static on this but not betting on the
end when you're going to call anyway is one of the
biggest weaknesses in Holdem.

I hope you keep your mind open to the proper conditions for
this kind of value betting. I think it's where a decent bit
of extra money is made.

And, yes, Ron, it's true that catching overlays one would
have passed up in earlier days is a rush, just wait until
you ride the razor's edge with just exactly enough to chase
once, twice, and check raise on the end with an unexpected
zany draw.

08-29-2003, 12:41 AM
Sounds like a hustler talking to himself to promote some garbage.