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View Full Version : AK(s) vs QQ & QQ

doug001001
08-20-2003, 03:15 PM
I was in a pot this past weekend 3 way action with AK(s) vs QQ and QQ.

Who is the favorite? Do the win rates change since the ak can't make a straight and the Qs can't improve to a set?

How does one calc this?

thanks

Copernicus
08-20-2003, 04:06 PM
I would normally say you compute it by inputting the hands into some software. However, a rough estimate is pretty easy given the elimination of the straight and sets. AKo is going to win (almost) whenever any A or K hit the board. Yes, it will lose if trips other than A or K land, but thats rare enough to ignore.

There will at least one A or K
(1-40/46*39/45*38/44*37/43*36/42) = 52% of the time. Add to this about 4% because they are suited and you get 56%.

Thus the duplication of the Qs has turned a slight favorite into a slightly bigger dog.

Bozeman
08-20-2003, 05:35 PM
wins:
4 of a kind on board tiny
flush in AKs suit 5%?, but some you would have won anyway, so about 3%
A without 89tj or 4 flush
K without 9tj or 4 flush

But i'm wrong, it's only 53.5%.

LondonBroil
08-24-2003, 10:31 PM
From twodimes

Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Kh 731974 53.40 633693 46.23 5087 0.37 0.535
Qs Qd 34880 2.54 749456 54.67 586418 42.78 0.239
Qc Qh 17482 1.28 766854 55.94 586418 42.78 0.226

RydenStoompala
08-26-2003, 08:08 AM
I thought it would look this way, so I ran 200 thousand hands through Turbo Hold'em. AK suited destroyed the odds, winning a wopping 75% of pots. The two players dealt QQ each time were killed by the crippled deck, each winning only small percentages of pots. AK suited, over the long haul, is an enormous advantage over the two people holding Ziegfried and Roy.

Wake up CALL
08-27-2003, 12:46 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I thought it would look this way, so I ran 200 thousand hands through Turbo Hold'em. AK suited destroyed the odds, winning a wopping 75% of pots. The two players dealt QQ each time were killed by the crippled deck, each winning only small percentages of pots. AK suited, over the long haul, is an enormous advantage over the two people holding Ziegfried and Roy.

[/ QUOTE ]

You had better get your simulator fixed. AKs wins about 53% of the time, pretty far from 75% and this is only if the AK stays all the way to the river. If he folds on the flop he wins 14% of the time, if he folds on the turn he wins 26% of the time.

swipx
08-28-2003, 06:32 PM
Nah. He's got it right. You'd much rather have AKs than QQ if you know the thrid player has QQ suited since you split the pot the 46% of the time the QQ wins.

Copernicus
08-28-2003, 11:37 PM
53% is correct. Of course you would rather have it, because the most of the other 47% of the time the Qs split. However there is no way to turn that fact into any sort of 75% pot winnings, EV, relative EV or anything I can think of. I would suspect an input error.