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ccwhoelse?
08-10-2003, 07:30 PM
let's say you played 100 hands and flopped a four-flush each hand. you would make your flush 35 times and you wouldn't make it 65 times and you'd win when you made it. if the pot was always the same and if you got sufficient pot odds to chase you should turn a profit right?

if sometimes you weren't getting good pot odds and you folded. after you folded your flush card hit. so the next time you are getting the pot odds to call wouldn't the probability of getting the flush go down?

i guess what i'm asking is, the probability of making a flush doens't depend on pot odds. so when you fold and your flush comes anyway, doesn't it reduce you chance of making the flush when you are getting the odds to call the next hand. otherwise your four-flush would be turning into a flush more than 35% of the time for as long as you played.

nummerfire
08-11-2003, 07:10 AM
I am not sure I understand your question, but i will try to answer anyway.

To fold in a pot where you do not have odds to chase have no influence on future pots.

To see if a call is right, you have to only count the pots where you continue.

If you do not have pot odds to continue, then folding will have an expected value of zero and continuing will have a negative expected value.

Kim

ccwhoelse?
08-11-2003, 01:18 PM
maybe i should reword it.

in any player's lifetime, the more hands he plays, he should get closer to making a flush 35% when he flopped a four flush.

so if you fold when you had a four flush cause you didn't get the pot odds and the flush comes you've just made a flush that would contribute to your 35% during your lifetime. so if you played let's say 10,000 hands your whole life and flopped a four flush each time. you should make 3,500 flushes. if you fold your first 1000 four-flushes because you are not getting the proper odds, and then 500 of them become flushes, you are now only going to be able to make 3,000 flushes out of the next 9,000 hands. so let's say during last 9,000 hands you get the effective pot odds to call based on your 1.86 to 1 calculation.
but since you've already made 500 flushes out of your original 3,500, which you folded, your chances of making the flush in the next 9,000 has gone down to 3,000 out of 9,000 or 33%. which would be a 2.03 to 1 shot rather than a 1.86 to 1.

does that make any sense?
hopefully i got my point across.

so, the more four-flushes you fold that turn into flushes,
the slightly better odds you need the next time around to draw to one?

1800GAMBLER
08-11-2003, 02:55 PM
Erm, sounds like tbe 'a red is due' arguement but a bit different.

Your odds of making the flush are always the same regardless of what you do. Probability has no idea if you fold or call, you'll make 35% if you call them all, you'll see 35% if you fold them all.

Say you fold your first ten, you just missed 3.5. If you call your next ten you'll make 3.5.

ccwhoelse?
08-11-2003, 03:26 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Say you fold your first ten, you just missed 3.5. If you call your next ten you'll make 3.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

but if you made 7 out of the first ten you folded, then next 10 you call, you should make 0.

so when you don't have odds during teh first ten, you fold and you would have made the flush.
then
when you did have the odds during the last ten, you called but you had no chance of making the flush, so you would need infinitely great pot odds to call, rather than the original 4 to 1 or 1.86 by the river.

pudley4
08-11-2003, 04:49 PM
[ QUOTE ]
but if you made 7 out of the first ten you folded, then next 10 you call, you should make 0.

[/ QUOTE ]

But how do you know that the 7 you made count towards this upcoming 10? What if they counted toward the last 10 that you missed?

How do the cards know if you made the flush or missed it the last time?

A related question - if I flip a coin and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, what odds will you give me that it comes up tails the next toss? Shouldn't it come up tails 10 times in a row to "balance out" the 10 heads? But wait, how does the coin know that you are doing exactly 20 trials? What if you were only doing 10 trials? What if you are doing 1 million trials - then the coin has 999,990 trials left to "balance out"?

The answer is: the cards don't know. If you are supposed to make 3.5 out of 10, you'll make 3.5 out of 10 in the long run. With any randomly occuring event (such as the turn of a card, or the throw of a die), there will always be "patterns" if you look at past results. However, there is no way to use these past results to predict future events.

crashdavis
08-11-2003, 04:59 PM
I agree with JayP, this is the red is due arguement.

The part that you are getting hung up about is

[ QUOTE ]
but if you made 7 out of the first ten you folded, then next 10 you call, you should make 0.

[/ QUOTE ]

The next 10 you call could be 10. This is one case where the cards (or hands played have no memory) like a roulette wheel (double 0) The probability of you hitting red is the exact same on every spin. Only through extremely long trial will you see that red is made 47% of the time.

Again one of the other key points is if you play that same hand over and over 1 million times you will make it 35% of the time. Each trial (a complete hand with a new shuffled deck) is independent of each other.

Let me try from a different angle if not clear yet

someone has to get the formula I don't have it at my finger tips ( and for the life of me I can't recreate it right now). But the formula remains the same hand to hand.

Hope that lead you down the right path

Crash

PS can someone post how 65% and 35% were derived.

ccwhoelse?
08-11-2003, 06:55 PM
yea, if you have a four flush, you have two of that suit, plus another two on the flop. so out of the 13 of that suit, 4 are out. 9 are left in the 47 card deck.
if you miss on the turn, one of the other 38 cards will come (38/47). the chance you miss on the river is (37/46)
(38/47)*(37/46) =.6503, the probability you will not make the flush.
the chance you will make it by the river is .3497 or 35%

it's all over the probability thread here and there.

NoChance
08-12-2003, 02:03 PM
More accurately put:

Your 35% will not change whether you have pots odds or not however, consider the following (100 hands without pot odds and 100 hands with pot odds):

100 hands without pot odds: You will still win 35% of your hands but the winnings collected will be less then your losses. You will only win "small" pots.

100 hands with pot odds: You will still win 35% of your hands but your winnings will exceed your losses. You will win the "larger" pots.

As you can see, the 35% win rate does not change. The amount of money you collect does change. Therefore, don't chase the "smaller" pots (those without pot odds).

Does this help?