View Full Version : JJ versus K8 on a Jxx flop, wierd results!

08-05-2003, 06:22 AM
Why are these numbers the way they are?

JsJh versus Ks8s

Flop Jc8h9h, K8 wins 1.92% of the time.

Flop Jc2h9h, K8 wins 3.03% of the time!

- Tony

08-05-2003, 09:50 AM
b/c a turn and a river of 10 & 7 in the first example give a split pot, where the same turn & river of 10 & 7 in the second example gives the pot to K-8.
I can't show you the math like brucez or some others can --- but in the first example the only winners for K-8 are two running Kings (3/45 * 2/44) or two running eights (2/45 * 1/45).
In the second example, K-8 wins with a running 10-7 or 7-10 (8/45 * 4/44). You have to discount for the times that both 10-7 show up as hearts, giving a flush to the JJ hand, but you get the point. I think I have that right, but if not, I'm sure someone will let me know.

08-05-2003, 11:54 AM
Pretty simple really (but counter-intuitive)...

The only way K8 can win the first flop is to catch two running kings/eights or 10-7/7-10 for a chop.

However, the second flop gives the K8 a chance for 10-7,
7-10,10-Q or Q-10 for the st8. As long as those are not two more flush cards, the K8 wins.

08-05-2003, 01:51 PM
And why can't you win in the first hand with QT? Am I missing something obvious?

08-05-2003, 02:53 PM
In cases where one hand is a big dog, you probably should look at the percentage pot expectation instead of the winning percentage because a significant part of the dog's expectation comes from split pots.

The other responses are right that the difference comes from whether straights are chopped.

a) win or split = 3.43%
expectation = 2.68%

b) win or split = 3.03%
expectation = 3.03% since there will be no chops.