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ccwhoelse?
07-29-2003, 10:23 AM
how often would two pair on the flop turn into a house.
also, how often would a set turn into a house, and three of a kind without a set turn ito a house. thanks.

slamdunkpro
07-29-2003, 11:25 AM
Two pair to full is 22.3-1 by the turn and 11-1 by the river.

3 of a kind to a house by the river - 2.4-1

SossMan
07-29-2003, 03:01 PM
Two pair to full is 22.3-1 by the turn and 11-1 by the river.

I don't think this is right...

Assuming it's two pair on the flop (4 outs to the boat)
isn't it 43:4 (or 10.75:1 or about 8.5%) to fill up on turn and 42:4 or 10.5:1 or about 8.7% to fill up on river (assuming you didn't fill up on turn)
So the chances of NOT filling up by the river would be
91.5%*91.3% or about 83.5%. (16.5% chance of getting boat or better by the river)

My quick and dirty "at the table" estimator is approx. 2% per out for each street.
So 4 outs would be about 8% on turn and 8% on river or about 16% by the end.
This isn't exact, but it usually gives me enough info to decide how to proceed (fold, call, bet, raise)

I hope this is right, if it's not, i'm sure i'll hear about it on this forum. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Copernicus
07-29-2003, 03:38 PM
2 pair makes a full house 16.56% of the time (5.04/1). Note that this includes a few hands where the entire full house is on the board, not using any of your cards. How many of that type there are depends on how you made the two pair (one of each in your hand or pair in hand pair on board), and what and where the two pair are (higher pairs in the hole will be used more often). It also includes some hands where one of your hole cards is counterfeited on the board, increasing the chances that someone else also has made a hand.

A set or trips make a full house 29.14% of the time (2.43/1). It doesnt matter whether it is a set or trips as to what the ultimate hand is, just the likelihood that someone else also has made a hand using the pair when it was trips.

slamdunkpro
07-29-2003, 04:38 PM
Sorry,

I fired up my Wilson TTH SW to get those #'s

That 22.3-1 and 11-1 are the odds for pairing one OR THE OTHER of the two pair into a boat. I forgot to figure either pair.