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ccwhoelse?
07-28-2003, 05:06 PM
if you are on a draw and if you are sure the other only player in the the same kind of draw is it ok to reduce your number of outs to compensate for this, as he might hold a card or two you need for your straight while you hold a card or two he needs.

isn't it also reasonable to assume, in a 10-handed game that your outs on a four flush aren't realistically 9, even though you have only seen 4(your two plus the two on the flop).

thanks.

SossMan
07-29-2003, 03:24 PM
I'm not sure I understand the first part, but I'll take a stab at the second...

isn't it also reasonable to assume, in a 10-handed game that your outs on a four flush aren't realistically 9, even though you have only seen 4(your two plus the two on the flop).

Yes it is reasonable that there probably are not 9 more spades in the deck, and that some of them are in other peoples hands. However, it's also reasonable to assume that there are not 38 (47 - 9) NON-SPADES in the deck (Meaning that if you subtract your outs because people may be holding spades, then you must subtract the NON-spades that they hold as well. Ultimately, unless there is some indication that more than 25% of the remaining cards are spades, it doesn't change the probability) It doesn't matter if the cards are burried on the bottom of the deck or in someone's mucked preflop hand. It only matters what the probability is that the turn and river cards are spades.

Now, you might (and I stress might) be able to make assumptions about how many of your outs are used up by logically determining the hands people are on. For instance, if 6 people call three bets cold on a flop of