View Full Version : $55 How about this -$EV Push?

12-27-2005, 07:20 AM
BB has been quite dominating and does probably have somewhere around SNGPT loose range, SB and Button are tight, maybe even weak-tight.

My reasoning for pushing, even though I knew that particular hand was -$EV:
•I have no FE next hand
•Next time the blind hits me its 200/400

Are these anywhere near good enough reasons for making this a push?

***** Hand History for Game 3268313818 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:18638654 Level:7 Blinds(150/300) - Tuesday, December 27, 05:16:43 EDT 2005
Table Table 67556 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Fischenstein ( $700 )
Seat 4: fgsfds ( $2030 )
Seat 8: Grivan ( $1320 )
Seat 9: VidaVidaVida ( $1930 )
Seat 10: UncleTony333 ( $4020 )
Trny:18638654 Level:7
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to fgsfds [ 7c 9h ]
Fischenstein folds.
fgsfds is all-In [2030]

12-27-2005, 08:43 AM
Very bad push IMO.

To know whether something is +$EV or -$EV you have to compare your $EV when you fold with your $EV when you push.

If you fold now you are second in chips, second to the loose big stack, which is a nice position to be in. Especially because you have 2 tight, shorter stacks to your left, which means you can torture them (if the big stack folds when they are in the blinds).

If you push you are risking your entire stack by going all-in when the only player who can bust you is in the BB, who happens to be quite loose. If you are not called you steal the blinds, which means you're still in 2nd chip position. You steal the big blind from the biggest stack, which doesn't really help you, because he will still be huge. If you're called by the BB you're screwed.

Pushing to steal blinds has value for us for 2 reasons: you add the blinds to your stack and you take the blinds from someone else's stack. In this case the extra $450 doesn't help you a lot because you will still be in second chip position, and you have almost 7BB to begin with. And you steal the big blind from the big stack, which doesn't help you at all because he will still easily be the big stack.
In this situation you should know a couple of things:
- Do not mess with the big stack, especially if he's loose.
- Steal the blinds of the shorter stacks. First of all they're tight. Secondly, this makes them shorter and you bigger. It gets you in an even stronger position.

I don't know if this made sense, but I'm just trying to explain my thoughts. It's all ICM. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

12-27-2005, 09:29 AM
Thing is, since I wont be able to steal the blind next hand I concider myself to be UTG this hand, if I switch seats in SNGPT putting me UTG its a +$EV push. But I guess since I've the opportunity to get a decent pushable hand even against shortstacks 100% calling range the next hand, its a bit off, but do you atleast see what I'm going for?

Edit to clarify even more:
I can clearly see that a fold has more $EV this particular hand (for obvious reasons), but a fold will also lead to some nearly certain -$EV events. IE: I will have 0 FE next hand and will be forced to a tight range, making a +$EV push unlikely. The hand after this the bigstack will most likely steal my blind (which will then be t400) and I'll be forced to fold because of chipstacks.

12-27-2005, 10:55 AM
I don't see why you would have 0 FE all of a sudden. Besides, you might get a hand that makes calling a push in your BB +EV. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

12-27-2005, 11:09 AM
so yea, whats FE?

ive been trying to figure it out

12-27-2005, 11:29 AM
He will have 0 FE on the next hand because the SS with 700 chips will be the BB and will call with any 2.

I can see the logic in this and have pushed in this situation with any 2. A push like this is very table specific and should be totally based on reads because you definately don't want to be called here.

You can't push next hand without a great holding, you're the BB the hand after that and down to 1600 and to 1400 after that. Now, you're on the button with 1400 chips pushing into a BB of 400. You're about to be in a very bad situation.

I would usually not push here and pray that I got a big hand in the next 5 hands, but I have pushed here.

12-27-2005, 11:45 AM
Woo, someone understood my reasoning and doesnt think I'm a total idiot. *cheer* /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

12-27-2005, 11:53 AM
Nah I fold here. You do have limited fold equity if you have 3xbb at 200/400.

This is a pretty awful push into a loose bigstack.

12-27-2005, 12:44 PM
Nah I fold here. You do have limited fold equity if you have 3xbb at 200/400.

This is a pretty awful push into a loose bigstack.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.. While I actually DO understand your points, and have made some horrible pushed based on my cards - I consider some of them +EV based on very specific reads/table condiditions.

Here...you've summarized table conditions that might make an 'any 2' push profitable, but you left/are overlooking the single two most important things:

1) Sometimes w/5 players left - there is an 'artificial' bubble in place w/players wanting to outlast and willing to tread VERY lightly. Is this the case? Do you have proof/read that someone wouldn't make a loose call against you in chip gathering efforts prior the the real bubble?

2) And you could have stopped your post at the following point... THE BB OF THIS HAND IS LOOSE AND DOMINATING...AND...OH YEAH... THE SUPREME CHIP LEADER.

:-) Fold :-)

Edit: Oh yeah. Having the blinds hit you isn't the end of the world. It turns out the -EV of the blinds can actually be LESS -EV than a bad push like this. FYI

Edit: FE = Fold Equity.

12-27-2005, 01:39 PM
FE = fold equity