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View Full Version : I don't get it. WTF could I possibly doing so wrong?

Bigwig
12-27-2005, 07:12 AM
It's not a down streak. It's not bad beats. It's a statistical problem. The following numbers are close. Not exact. But close.

Last ~5000 \$20/\$30 tournaments, ROI ~= 24%

Last ~3000 \$50 tournaments, ROI ~=6%

And those last 2000 on the \$50s have been brutal.

Now, can this big a range be variance?

Or, what could I possibly be doing between the levels that is resulting in this big of a drop off? I really don't want to make my living playing \$30s.

12-27-2005, 08:24 AM
[ QUOTE ]
It's not a down streak. It's not bad beats. It's a statistical problem. The following numbers are close. Not exact. But close.

Last ~5000 \$20/\$30 tournaments, ROI ~= 24%

Last ~3000 \$50 tournaments, ROI ~=6%

And those last 2000 on the \$50s have been brutal.

Now, can this big a range be variance?

Or, what could I possibly be doing between the levels that is resulting in this big of a drop off? I really don't want to make my living playing \$30s.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's unlikely the \$55's are that much harder, for you or anyone else.

Did you play the \$55's after the \$22's and \$33's? If this is the case, you might have let some leaks into your game without realizing it. This can easily happen over so many SnG's. Besides that, do you play different in 1000 chip games? Maybe you are playing more hands or something like that, which might be -EV.

And I think variance can have a big influence on your ROI, even after thousands of tournaments. To give you an idea... I had an 8% ROI after my first thousand \$22's with some \$33's mixed in. Then I moved up to the \$55s (Don't ask me why!) and now I have about an 14% ROI after 900.

Also, maybe you were tilting or tired in the last weeks or months?

skipperbob
12-27-2005, 08:29 AM
On a bellcurve where the mean is (-)9%, (+)6% isn't all that bad.

As a warmup to this year's WSOP Irieguy &amp; Zen (2 quality SnG playing 2+2'er's)played 1000 \$109's to an R.O.I. of (+)6%

curtains
12-27-2005, 08:50 AM
Sorry to say bigwig, but Im sure you have some major holes. 6% out of 3000 games for someone who is even at the 15% skill level is nearly impossible.

Big Limpin'
12-27-2005, 10:54 AM
TO steal a quote from boxing:
"Styles make fights"

Agree with curtains that you have enough sample size to know this is not purely variance, although you may be a little run bad at those 55s.

Heres the thing...those extra 200 chips cant help EVERYONE...if they are to the benifit of some, it must be at the expense of others. And thats not so say that you suck if you are better 800 chipping...it just means that your strengths are more tailored to the math/balls/preflop push game. Likewise, its quite likely that the weaknesses in your game are amplified in a slightly deeper stack scernario, wheres theres a little more room for creativity, and inspired poker.

My totally unqualified best guess...you may want to look at the hands 50/100 to 100/200, were you are transitioning to bubble/apeshit mode....and see if you are perhaps too aggro too early, or waiting too long, or whatever. Its evident that you wont be transitioning at the exact same moments in the 33s as the 55s...so if you find that you ARE, that a pretty big bell going off that you ought to change that in one of the levels....and quite clearly, your 33s game is closer to optimal than your 55s.

*Disclaimer: all speculation...but what i would think about if I had recored your results. SOmehting is clearly changing between the 2 levels, and its not explained fully by villain skill jump. Not 24% to 6%.

Also, um, you may have heard that alot of our better STTFers are 10 tabling the 55s. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

And anyways, its not like \$3/tourney is sending you to the poorhouse (if you play alot).

You'll figure it out, good luck, and be sure to tell us when you find the problem, you arent the only one.

BL' /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Big Limpin'
12-27-2005, 11:12 AM
Also, Bigwig, could you give finish dist'ns for the two level?
Hard to diagnose the disease without knowing the symptoms

eastbay
12-27-2005, 11:15 AM
[ QUOTE ]
It's not a down streak. It's not bad beats. It's a statistical problem. The following numbers are close. Not exact. But close.

Last ~5000 \$20/\$30 tournaments, ROI ~= 24%

Last ~3000 \$50 tournaments, ROI ~=6%

And those last 2000 on the \$50s have been brutal.

Now, can this big a range be variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

Highly unlikely.

Perhaps you are not properly adjusting for 1k chips.

eastbay

raptor517
12-27-2005, 02:12 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's not a down streak. It's not bad beats. It's a statistical problem. The following numbers are close. Not exact. But close.

Last ~5000 \$20/\$30 tournaments, ROI ~= 24%

Last ~3000 \$50 tournaments, ROI ~=6%

And those last 2000 on the \$50s have been brutal.

Now, can this big a range be variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

Highly unlikely.

Perhaps you are not properly adjusting for 1k chips.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that has a large impact on your results. more than likely, yer playing yer standard uber tight early game and pushbot late game. it doesnt work NEARLY as well as in the 800 chip games. try opening up a teeny bit early game. i think you will like the results. holla

yvesaint
12-27-2005, 02:18 PM
open up your range more in late position, especially in level 2-3.

HtotheNootch
12-27-2005, 04:01 PM
[ QUOTE ]
open up your range more in late position, especially in level 2-3.

[/ QUOTE ]

May I ask why? I'm not at the 55s yet, but I'm guessing that you can pick up the blinds more often in unopened pots, or is there another reason?

Eihli
12-27-2005, 04:41 PM
Anything over 17% ROI in the 30's is highly unlikely.

Bigwig
12-28-2005, 02:58 AM
Okay, thanks for the advice. There's no reason to be sorry, Curtains. I'm trying to fix leaks, not deny that they are real.

So, the difference in chips is likely hurting me. Yes, I do play similarly to the 800 chip level tournaments. What, precisely, do I need to change?

I'm thinking it's time for a whole new research/tear down/rebuild session.

Bigwig
12-28-2005, 02:59 AM
Heh. For some reason, I doubt this thread really has gotten over 1000 views. Am I that popular?

12-28-2005, 05:31 AM

pergesu
12-28-2005, 05:36 AM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Heh. For some reason, I doubt this thread really has gotten over 1000 views. Am I that popular?

[/ QUOTE ]

No you aren't. However, people always like to read about other's misfortunes to make themselves feel better about their own lives.

[/ QUOTE ]
There's even a term for it. schadenfreude. I actually hope you'd just start kicking ass though.

bones
12-28-2005, 05:37 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, thanks for the advice. There's no reason to be sorry, Curtains. I'm trying to fix leaks, not deny that they are real.

So, the difference in chips is likely hurting me. Yes, I do play similarly to the 800 chip level tournaments. What, precisely, do I need to change?

I'm thinking it's time for a whole new research/tear down/rebuild session.

[/ QUOTE ]

The major difference I've seen is that you have to play more poker on level 3 and 4.

12-28-2005, 08:28 AM
The real reason is that with 1000 chips you are getting more implied odds which means it's correct to be playing more hands in the early levels. Not lots more but some.

microbet
12-28-2005, 01:50 PM
I've viewed it a few times and not because I'm taking pleasure in your troubles. Seems strange to me that someone who has like 6 posts would come into this thread and comment at all.

I certainly hope it boils down to something simple that you can fix easily. Based on my much more limited experience, it is much easier to pick up a bunch of chips in the first few levels of the \$55s, not as much by catching junk all-ins with AA or KK (though that still happens), but just by playing a few more hands and picking up some pots. I was quite surprised with the frequency I was hitting the later levels with like 1600 chips.

Are you sure you're not tilting just a tiny bit?

Also, it's not super tragic, you are winning and will almost certainly improve.

sofere
12-28-2005, 01:52 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Heh. For some reason, I doubt this thread really has gotten over 1000 views. Am I that popular?

[/ QUOTE ]

No you aren't. However, people always like to read about other's misfortunes to make themselves feel better about their own lives.

[/ QUOTE ]
There's even a term for it. schadenfreude. I actually hope you'd just start kicking ass though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha...you watched Boston Legal last night too, huh?