PDA

View Full Version : Blackjack

bigsooner
12-13-2005, 02:14 PM
At what true count is the player edge enough to start making big bets? I have been playing a two deck game with over 50% penetration. Playing pure basic strat and waiting for a +5 or better true count to make big bets, changing form one 5\$ bet to two 50\$ bets. Should I make big bets with lower counts? Is this Strat enough to be +EV?

DesertCat
12-13-2005, 02:20 PM
What does the chart tell you?

12-13-2005, 02:24 PM
That depends very much on the rules.

Sniper
12-13-2005, 04:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
At what true count is the player edge enough to start making big bets? I have been playing a two deck game with over 50% penetration. Playing pure basic strat and waiting for a +5 or better true count to make big bets, changing form one 5\$ bet to two 50\$ bets. Should I make big bets with lower counts? Is this Strat enough to be +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

Borrowed this...

For each increase of 1 in the true count, the player's advantage increases by about .5% in the average Blackjack game. If the casino has an edge over the basic strategy player of .5 %, it takes a true count of just about 1 in order to get "even" with the house. Being even means that the player who utilizes proper basic strategy will win as much as s/he loses -- in the long run -- at a true count of one. A true count of 2 gives the counter an edge of .5% over the house; a true count of 3 gives the player an edge of 1% and so forth.

It is the edge that a player has on the upcoming hand which determines their bet. Counters bet only a small portion of their capital on any given hand (the top bet should not exceed 2% of your total bankroll), because while they will win in the long run, they could lose any one hand. By betting an amount which is in proportion to their advantage (called the "Kelly Criterion"), they are maximizing their potential while minimizing the risk. A lot of people misinterpret the Kelly Criterion by assuming that the amount bet is in direct proportion to the advantage. They think that if you have a 1% edge, you should bet 1% of your "bankroll" and that is incorrect. What they are forgetting is the doubling and pair splitting which goes on in the course of a game and that increases the risk or "variance" of a hand. The optimum bet is 76% of the player's advantage.

If you play at a game with only 50% penetration, out of every 100 hands, only 29 will have, on average, a true count of 1 or better. Since it requires a true count of 1 to get even with the house (actually small advantage with 2 decks), only 14 will be hands on which you have an advantage. You are wasting your time and money if you play at a game with less than 65% penetration.

If you move to play 2 hands when the count is favorable, because of covariance, the rule is that 56% of the advantage times the bankroll is the optimum bet for each of two hands.

(Note: Did you really intend to post this in the Stock Market forum?)

Tzak
12-14-2005, 09:57 PM
Don't even waiste your time.On the blackjack side is variance,then when you're finally good enough-getting tossed compared to fish playing ace rag.Tzak.