View Full Version : Holdem Stats Questions (probability of losing at showdown)

10-13-2005, 01:40 PM
In a holdem cash game with 8+ players:

How often will a player LOSE the hand if the hand goes to a showdown after the river, in the following situations:

a) The player makes 3 of a kind
b) The player makes a strait
c) The player makes a flush
d) The player makes a full house

10-13-2005, 04:15 PM
It depends. This is not even close to sufficiently accurately described to make any reasonable assumptions.

10-13-2005, 04:21 PM
It depends on the board. If there are three of a kind on the board, you're a lot less likely to win with three of a kind than if the board has no pairs. Similarly with the other hands, it depends quite a bit on how the hand is made up between your pocket cards and the board, and what the remaining cards on the board are. Also for straights and especially flushes, your chance of losing depends quite a bit on whether you have the highest possible or a lower version of the hand.

10-13-2005, 04:28 PM
If you ask around nicely enough in the correct forum (ML/SS/M-HS limit hold'em or SSNL/M-HSNL) you can get some data from people with pokertracker. You can probably use a database with just 10k hands or more since these hands are very common at showdown.