View Full Version : Odds of drawing to FH

10-11-2005, 10:55 PM
Hand of Hold'em

The flop gives you two pair. You are ahead. The turn is a blank for you but probably makes a flush for one of the other players. You need to improve to a full house to win. There are four players in the hand.

My questions are: if you are the first player to bet how many bb need to be in the pot to make a bet break even?

How many bets need to be in the pot if you are the fourth player to bet?

Please do not assume others might bet, call, raise. In other words no expected value. Thank you.

10-12-2005, 09:12 AM
This is a fundamental error in logic. The number of BBs in the pot does not affect whether or not you should bet (from an EV standpoint, not counting the times where you want to eliminate other players, etc.).

When you're deciding whether or not to bet for value, you have to look at how many players will call and the odds of making your hand. For example, if four players will call and you're 3:1 to make your hand then you should bet because you're getting 4:1 on a 3:1 dog. If you're a 5:1 dog then you should not bet. If someone else bets, that's when you use the pot size to determine whether or not to call.

Anyway, in this scenario, you're 4/46 = 10.5:1 against making your hand.

10-12-2005, 12:04 PM
To expand on PaulTheS's excellent answer, the amount of money in the pot affects whether or not you call, not whether or not you bet.

However, if the pot is large enough to justify a call, you then have to decide whether to bet or check (and how much to bet in spread, pot or no limit). With a strong hand you bet to get more money in the pot, with a weak one you bet to get others to fold.

In this case, it would almost certainly make sense to check. You want as many people as possible in the pot, but you don't want more money in until you find out whether or not you make your full house. The only reason to bet in this situation is if you think it will reduce the total amount of betting. That's highly unlikely given the details you lay out.

If the pot is not large enough to justify a call, you still might bet in order to get other people to fold.