PDA

View Full Version : Is it mathematically possible to be unlucky?

bambi
10-08-2005, 01:19 AM
Ok i dont know much about math, but is it mathematically possible to be unlucky stastically. I am wondering because whenever i am in a 50/50 situation, especially in life not just poker, things seem to go south rather than north. I am not complaining, i am just wondering wether this problem is my head, in which case i will try fix my mental state, or could i just be unlucky.

It seems the more important the 50/50 situation is the less hope i have.

So is it mathemaitically possible to be unlucky?

10-08-2005, 01:37 AM
Interesting question.

If you're talking about things over which you have no control at all, then yes. You can get in a bus crash twice. Several members of your family can die soon after one another. You can win the lottery twice if you're in it.

However, most situations in life, a person's choices and actions are far greater than 'random' probability. IMO you can prepare adequately for most important situations so that chance becomes no longer a factor. Examples are being on time for an appointment, exam questions, meeting a girl, getting a good job, etc.

[ QUOTE ]
I am wondering because whenever i am in a 50/50 situation especially in life not just poker, things seem to go south rather than north.

[/ QUOTE ]
Often you need to be proactive to get the desired outcome in situations where things could go either way. People also have a tendency to overestimate their own skill level or underestimate the effort required to achieve a result, so failure appears as bad luck when it was actually the most likely outcome.

Do you have an example of these 50/50 situations? It's hard to tell if they really are random chance events without knowing what they are.

UATrewqaz
10-08-2005, 01:44 AM
The answer is YES given a large enough population.

America has roughly 300 million people.

The odds of hitting the bad side of a 50/50

28.15 times in a row is roughly 300 million : 1

Thus you figure if you got 300 million people together and presented each of them with 28 50/50 situations there would be 1 unlucky bastard who got the bad end of every one of them (over the long run).

The way to break your "unluckiness"? You really can't, you just need more trials, mroe and more and more and the law of large numbers iwll eventually balance things out.

bambi
10-08-2005, 02:29 AM
So how do you overcome this in terms of poker, keep playing millions of hands i suppose until it balances out? which would mean you need are larger Bankroll?

10-08-2005, 12:21 PM
I read an article by Mike Caro on this. Some people are just more lucky than others and you just need to accept your fate and deal with it. As for the word "luck", there really is no such thing but that is a long story. Maybe I will post the meaning of "luck" when I get a chance.

10-08-2005, 01:33 PM
lol, made me think of this, read it in some book :
"Avoid hiring unlucky people by immediately tossing half the CVs into the bin.

Vincent Lepore
10-08-2005, 04:30 PM
[ QUOTE ]
So how do you overcome this in terms of poker, keep playing millions of hands i suppose until it balances out? which would mean you need are larger Bankroll?

[/ QUOTE ]

You cannot overcome bad luck (if there is such a thing). You treat poker as you would any other event understanding that each event is physically independent. Each poker hand is an independent trial, the same as tossing an unbiased coin. However, you must also understand that in poker what happened before (last hand(s)) may have an effect of what happens on the next hand. That is, that there is a psychological part of poker that influences not the physical occurance of dealt cards but the way in which one plays those cards. There are a lot of people that claim they are unlucky but are in fact not playing in postive situations. The only thing a poker player can do is be prepared. If you are a positive EV player and are prepared to play as best you can then che sera sera. That is all you can do.

Vince

mosch
10-08-2005, 10:28 PM
[ QUOTE ]
lol, made me think of this, read it in some book :
"Avoid hiring unlucky people by immediately tossing half the CVs into the bin.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is possibly the best hiring advice I've ever read. I'll change my policies immediately.

10-09-2005, 06:20 AM
people who really believe they are unlucky will attract bad luck. the expectation will influence the acting . try to think positive if you wanna change your streak of bad luck /images/graemlins/smile.gif
good luck!

10-09-2005, 05:41 PM
There is no such thing as good luck or bad luck. Yet, it's a widely used word when some event happens that seemed very unlikely whether it be a good thing or a bad thing.

10-10-2005, 02:32 AM
[ QUOTE ]
As for the word "luck", there really is no such thing but that is a long story.

[/ QUOTE ]

So True. All events are predetermined by inputs that are just too minute for humans to measure. Therefore, we assign probabilities based on what has happened in similar situations.

ZZzzZZzz

Trantor
10-10-2005, 05:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Ok i dont know much about math, but is it mathematically possible to be unlucky stastically. I am wondering because whenever i am in a 50/50 situation, especially in life not just poker, things seem to go south rather than north. I am not complaining, i am just wondering wether this problem is my head, in which case i will try fix my mental state, or could i just be unlucky.

It seems the more important the 50/50 situation is the less hope i have.

So is it mathemaitically possible to be unlucky?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think so about tha maths but a psychological inclination to bad lick could be present. See: