View Full Version : Nine to the river - odds to hit a jackpot

05-22-2003, 02:54 PM
OK, at the cardroom where I play, the bad beat jackpot is $100,000. And if that one gets hit, the next one is $100,000. And if that one gets hit, the next one is $80,000. Yeah, that's a lot of money getting dropped. The bad beat loser gets 50%, the winner of the hand gets 25%, and the rest of the table splits the rest, so w/ nine players, you'd get about $3500 just for sitting at the table.

A qualifying bad beat is quads or better beaten, both cards play in both hands. So, quads can be beaten by quads or a straight flush or a straight flush can be beaten by a higher straight flush. I believe if the kicker w/ quads is tied on the board, it qualifies. (ie: A2333 - one guy has a 45 straight flush, the other has A3).

There's a $4 drop ($3 + $1 JP) each round.

So here's the question. What is the probability of a jackpot being hit if all nine players go to the river every hand?

Because if it's better than 1 in 8000 (if everyone kept what they won) or 1 in 25000 (if the table split the jackpot evenly), maybe we should be checking it down every hand!

05-23-2003, 04:00 PM
But some hands have exactly 0 chance to qualify it in this setup.
For example, there is no board that will make 32o a qualifying holding.
People with suited connectors, pairs, Aces and Kings and maybe Queens will have much better odds than the lesser hands.

05-25-2003, 06:21 AM

05-26-2003, 10:33 AM

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