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View Full Version : Deck composition vs. player count

10-06-2005, 07:12 PM
For those who play Texas Hold'em for example, we all know what cards we should play vs. position. This might be a mute point but based on the # of players and what cards you and the other people get at that round of play will in randomness determine what cards hit the flop, turn and river. With 10 players and the community cards, that is 25 out of 52 if the river card is dealt. Still, that leaves over half a deck not coming into play each time and even more with less players. I'm assuming all of this has been factored into the game, or has it really? That is, what to expect in the long run when playing a certain 2 cards and the randomness of the flop, turn and river.

You can count outs or unseen cards but lets say after the flop it's you and 2 other people in a 10 person ring. First of all the flop is coming from 32 remaing cards. Then you have 29 cards after the flop and 27 won't even come combined with 14 cards that are mucked. Your on a flush draw so that is 9/47 unseen cards but 14 of those 47 have no chance of hitting. So is 9/47 really a good number to go by? If after seeing the flop the dealer combines the muck cards with the others minus the two other players and shuffles then you have a true 9/43. Even then you can question how many hearts say the other 2 players have? Odds are they have 1 heart so now the odds are 8/43. Of course that % is almost the same as 9/47 and would be cutting hairs but the main point are the cards that have no chance of coming into play for that round. Just a thought to ponder.

Thanks

SheetWise
10-06-2005, 07:55 PM
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With 10 players and the community cards, that is 25 out of 52 if the river card is dealt ... You're on a flush draw so that is 9/47 unseen cards but 14 of those 47 have no chance of hitting ... but the main point are the cards that have no chance of coming into play for that round. Just a thought to ponder.

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But then there's the 24 cards on the bottom of the deck. They'll never come into play either -- ever. So why count them? You're just using unseen cards in your calcs, it doesn't matter where they are, they're unseen (unless you see them of course, then factor them in).

10-06-2005, 11:35 PM
On average after the flop is closer to 22% and 12% after the turn instead of 35 and 20%. BUT, if the hearts for example are all clumped into the 25 cards that can be in play, your looking at 47 and like 80%. This number can also be 0% if there all clumped in the 27 cards that won't come into play. This is assuming you have 2 hearts and after the flop there are 2 hearts.

LetYouDown
10-07-2005, 09:24 AM
Take a deck. Deal out the flop and the hand you hold. Keep these constant. Deal the other 9 hands out. Put those in the muck, without looking. Deal turn/river. Take a spreadsheet with a hit/don't hit column and mark the appropriate box. Pick up turn/river/muck and the deck and shuffle. Repeat, 50000 times. Post results.