PDA

View Full Version : Flop to river probability

10-02-2005, 05:32 PM
Hello people,

It's my first post here and I need your help.
I don't understand how the flop to river probability are calculated. My way to do it seems to be wrong. Here is an example of how I would do it, let's say the the hand have 4 outs, wouldn't it be good to do (4/47)+ (4/46)=17,21%??. From http://www.freefiftydollars.com/pokerodds.html, the answer would be 16.47%.

BruceZ
10-02-2005, 05:44 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Hello people,

It's my first post here and I need your help.
I don't understand how the flop to river probability are calculated. My way to do it seems to be wrong. Here is an example of how I would do it, let's say the the hand have 4 outs, wouldn't it be good to do (4/47)+ (4/46)=17,21%??. From http://www.freefiftydollars.com/pokerodds.html, the answer would be 16.47%.

[/ QUOTE ]

4/47 + (43/47 * 4/46) =~ 16.47%

That is, hitting the turn (4/47), or missing the turn (43/47) and hitting the river (4/46).

Or, 1 - (43/47 * 42/46) =~ 16.47%

That is, 1 minus the probability of missing on both turn and river.

Or the easiest to calculate:

2*4/47 - (4/47 * 3/46) =~ 16.47%

That is, 4/47 on each card, minus the probability of hitting on both turn and river.

10-02-2005, 05:48 PM
oops! that true! i forgot to take in account that u can hit ur card on the turn!

Big thx to you!