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View Full Version : Possibilities of results being by chance.

Talex
05-15-2003, 04:43 PM
I assume there is a way to determine the possibility that a given win result is by chance over a period of time. Does anyone have the formula handy to allow you to see how likely it is that you're just on a lucky streak, versus solid play resulting in an overall win? Or am I on a lark?

-Tim

BruceZ
05-15-2003, 05:01 PM
Yes, once you have good estimate of your standard deviation using the formula in the essay section, you can determine how many standard deviations your results are from any assumed hourly rate. From that you can determine the probability of any hourly rate giving those results.

For example, say your hourly standard deviation is 10 bb, and you have averaged 1 bb/hr for 400 hours. That means you won 400 big bets, and your standard deviation for the 400 hours is sqrt(400)*10 = 20*10 = 200 bb. If you were really only a break even player with an hourly rate of 0 bb/hr, then you would be 2 standard deviations above aveage (400/200 = 2), and the probability of winning this much or more would be only 2.3%. You can get this probability from a table of the standard normal distribution, or from Excel.