View Full Version : probability in Omaha Hi

09-26-2005, 11:48 PM
I was playing a hand of 9TJQ to a board of 7993T, does anyone know the probability of one of 6 opponents holding TT in this situation. Also, I know there is pokerstove for holdem probilities and simulations is there anything similar for Omaha simulations?

09-27-2005, 11:44 AM
6 opponents 4 cards each. 43 unknown cards.

The odds that both tens are somewhere in the opponent's hands are
41 chose 24 in 43 chose 24 =151584480450/800472431850 (roughly .19)

Now, the chance that both tens are in the same hand, if they are in the 24 cards is
1-(22 chose 4)/(24 chose 4)=3311/10626 (roughly .31)

Then the net probability is
501896214769950/8505820060838100 (roughly .06).59
That would be one time in 17.

09-27-2005, 01:17 PM
If the table VPIP (and %age of people seeing the showdown) is less than 100% though, the probability of someone actually being in the hand and having it is significantly less than 1/17.

Considering the fact that there would almost certainly be a bet on the flop or turn, someone holding TT is unlikely to see the river. Most combinations of cards that include TT will otherwise miss that flop, and they'll be forced to fold to any sign of aggression unless they too hold a 9, or something comparable strong (a lower set). Someone holding TT preflop may also simply fold right off the bat.

You're about as close to a lock there as you can get in omaha. Top boat is only marginally less vulnerable to quads than you are to pocket tens here (you're arguably safer, since quads will hit a set on the flop and have good reason to call bets to see the river).

09-28-2005, 07:33 AM
cardplayer has a link to calculate omaha hi pot odds; also the wilson software program has an omaha high version which is nice. I haven't spent much time on it though. Rolf Slotbloom recently discussed the omaha wilson program in his cardplayer article, you should check that out