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View Full Version : How likely is it to flop an OESD with a onegap-connector?

FlyingStart
09-19-2005, 07:49 PM
I know it's in the neighborhood of 8-1 with a normal connector, but what is the probability with a onegap-connector?

MickeyHoldem
09-19-2005, 10:47 PM
for 1-gapper from 35 up to TQ...

A quick calculation nets me about 1184 flops that give you an OESD... so thats ~15.5 to 1

for 24 and JK... the number of flops is half of the above number, so its ~32 to 1

BruceZ
09-19-2005, 11:02 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I know it's in the neighborhood of 8-1 with a normal connector, but what is the probability with a onegap-connector?

[/ QUOTE ]

The suited-connectors 54s-JTs will flop an 8-out straight draw with probability 9.6% (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=355216&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb =5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1), or 9.4-to-1, not 8-to-1. This includes double gut-shots which account for 0.64%, so the OESDs alone would be about 9% or 10.2-to-1.

If we only consider OESDs for which we have 2 of the straight cards in our hand, then the 1-gappers from 53 to QT will flop 2/3 as many OESDs as connectors from 54 to JT. This is because the connectors have 3 pairs of cards that can make an OESD, while with the 1-gapper, 1 flop card must fill the gap, and then there are 2 choices for the other rank.

The 1-gappers 75s-T8s can flop 3 double gut shot draws for an additional 0.96%, and the 1-gappers 53s,64s,J9s,QTs can flop 2 double gut shot draws, for an additional 0.64%.

This would make the probability of an OESD for a 1-gapper 53s-QTs at 2/3 of 9% = 6% or 15.7-to-1 if we ignore double gut shots. If we include double gut shots, the odds would be 13.4-to-1 for 75s-T8s, and 14.1-to-1 for 53s,64s,J9s, and QTs.

If you wish to include the 8-out straight draws where you only hold 1 straight card in your hand for one of the straights, this will add 0.64% to the 1-gapper numbers for 75s-T8s, and 0.32% for 53s,64s,J9s, and QTs, but these are much weaker straight draws.

FlyingStart
09-20-2005, 04:03 AM
thx