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Alex/Mugaaz
09-18-2005, 08:20 PM
I've come to the conclusion that I simply don't appreciate what kinds of swings should take place. Assuming someone is a 2bb/100 winner, plays 300hands/hr, and averages 30h/week. How could I make/find a graph that would show what kind of swings are normal over weeks/months. I really don't understand how good or how bad I'm running since I have nothing I can compare it too (actually I feel I'm running too good, so this isn't cliche whine post don't worry).

AaronBrown
09-18-2005, 09:20 PM
The key missing statistic is your standard deviation of per 100 hands. Suppose it is 30 BB per 100 hands. Then over a week in which you play 9,000 hands, your expected winnings are 180 BB and your standard deviation is (90)^0.5*30 = 285 BB.

About two times out of three, your actual weekly results should be within one standard deviation of the mean, or -105 BB to +465 BB. About 95% of the time, the weekly results should be within two standard deviations, or -390 BB to +750 BB.

ChromePony
09-18-2005, 09:43 PM
This is the way to do it, but usually SD is a good deal lower than this, more in the 15-18/100 range.

Alex/Mugaaz
09-18-2005, 09:44 PM
I don't know my SD unfortunately since I don't play on PT sites yet (While I think PT is important the games I'm playing were worth giving it up). An SD of 30bb seems very, very high... I would guess mine is in the 16-17 range for LHE. I'm playing mostly stud these days but I don't have enough info to guage my SD other than to say that currently I'm a luckbox.