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bruce
09-15-2005, 09:04 PM
Is this mathematically sound?

Let's assume we're playing NLHE in a nine handed game. I'm UTG and I decide to raise. Let's also assume that my opponents will only call with QQ-AA and AK. We have a total of 1225 two card starting hands. We have six combos
of a pocket pair so that's 18 combos and 16 more combos for
AK. That's 34 combos of hands. 34 divided by 1225 is 0.028 or 2.8%. So that means each subsequent player has
a 2.8% chance of having a playable hand. I have 8 players
yet to act so there is a roughly 22% chance I will be called based on my ranges.

Is my math flawed or am I accurate.

Thanks.

Bruce

Tom1975
09-16-2005, 12:42 PM
You're wrong for two reasons. First there are 1326 starting hands, not 1225. So the odds of one opponent having a playable hand is 34/1326. Secondly, to figure this out for 8 opponents, you can't just multiply 34/1326

Tom1975
09-16-2005, 12:42 PM
You're wrong for two reasons. First there are 1326 starting hands, not 1225. So the odds of one opponent having a playable hand is 34/1326. Secondly, to figure this out for 8 opponents, you can't just multiply 34/1326 by 8 (although this will give you a decent approximation).

bruce
09-16-2005, 12:55 PM
Thx for the reply. How do you account for eight players? Why
can't you multiply by eight? Sorry for asking a basic question, but it's been 25 years since I received my degree.
What I'm really trying to find out is what's the statistical likelyhood if I raise UTG and put my opponents on the above calling range that I will pick up the blinds if they only will call with my assigned range of hands?

Bruce

LetYouDown
09-16-2005, 01:19 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Why can't you multiply by eight?

[/ QUOTE ]