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View Full Version : You know your opponent has a pocket Aces...

09-14-2005, 08:41 PM
Do 3 spades on the flop reduce the probability that he has an the Ace of spades? I think it does, right? If so, by how much?

zgall1
09-14-2005, 08:54 PM
Definitely not.

09-14-2005, 09:43 PM
It does not. The only spade that would reduce his chance of having the A of spades would be the A of spades on the board.

09-14-2005, 11:47 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Do 3 spades on the flop reduce the probability that he has an the Ace of spades? I think it does, right? If so, by how much?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, actually he's more likely to have the Ace of spades if you don't see it on the flop (he's got 2 in 47 instead of 2 in 50).

2+2 wannabe
09-15-2005, 02:20 AM
i like this question - it's interesting

cause it works both ways - and I don't know which one dominates

Kaeser
09-15-2005, 03:59 AM
If you know for a fact that he has pocket aces then his chance of having the ace of spades is 50/50. There are 4 aces he has 2 of them so it's 50% that one of them is the spade. The only thing that changes this probability is if an ace comes on the flop. That makes it 66% that he has a spade.