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View Full Version : Chance of being breakeven after 7k hands

emil3000
09-13-2005, 02:57 PM
What are the chances of being breakeven after 7k hands limitassuming:

1) you're a 2BB/100 winner

2 you're a 1 BB/100 winner

How do I figure stuff like this out on my own?

Do you need SD and stuff to do these calculations? If so my SD is 17BB/100

ChromePony
09-13-2005, 07:25 PM
Let me take a stab at this, but I always somehow screw it up.

1) 7k hands at 2/100 is an EV of 140bb, SD over the same period is 17*sqrt(70)=142.2. How convenient...so approximately you're off by 1 SD. Exactly, NORMSDIST(-140/142.2) = 16.2% so you will be breakeven or worse this often.

2) Rather similar, this time youre 70BB off your EV. NORMSDIST(-70/142.2) = 31.1%.

I'll let you experts clean up any mess I made.

09-19-2005, 02:23 PM
BB=Big Bet
bb = Big Blind

I'm getting mixed up here, is that correct or do I still have it wrong?

EDIT: NM is was on the FAQ.... Yes I excaped from the Zoo...

09-19-2005, 06:18 PM
[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: NM is was on the FAQ.... Yes I excaped from the Zoo...

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Priceless.

09-20-2005, 04:39 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: NM is was on the FAQ.... Yes I excaped from the Zoo...

[/ QUOTE ]
Priceless.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did that just for you /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Notice I didn't edit out the question? I felt sharing the stupidity was in order.