View Full Version : probability he have a flush-draw?

09-12-2005, 01:11 PM
Holdem. One caller preflop.

2 hearts on the flop. I have no heart in my pocket.

How big is probability he have a flush-draw with 2 hearts in his pocket?


09-12-2005, 01:29 PM
47 unknown cards.
11 unseen hearts

There are 47*23=1081 possible unknown hands
and there are 11*5=55 suited heart hands, so
naively, it would be 55 of 1081 -- so roughly 1 in 20.

Now, pairs are obviously not suited, and, otherwise suited hands are preferable to unsuited ones, and, there's no real notion of how your opponent plays, so you'll have to go from there.

09-12-2005, 01:46 PM
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