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09-07-2005, 03:29 PM
Hi. I've discussed a pokerhand with a friend, and we argued for some time over the probabilities of one outcome or another. Therefore I would hope some of you could try to calculate, and post here how you found the prob.

Here's the situation. It's heads up.

I HOLD: TT
OPPONENT: J8

FLOP: T92 (rainbow)

I go all in and he calls. What is the probability my opponent will win? He needs to catch a straight, and at the same time i CANNOT catch a full house.

He got 8 outs on turn and river, I got 7 outs on flop, and 10 on the river (if I didn't hit on turn).

Somebody help us :-)

KJL
09-07-2005, 03:43 PM
You have about a 31% chance to make your staright and he has about a 35% chance to make a full house or quads. So you will have the best hand .31*.65 = around a 20% chance.

LetYouDown
09-07-2005, 04:03 PM
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1205424
pokenum -h tc th - js 8d -- td 9h 2c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 2c Td 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Th 734 74.14 256 25.86 0 0.00 0.741
Js 8d 256 25.86 734 74.14 0 0.00 0.259

To be more specific, there are 256 combinations out of a possible 990 turns/rivers that will give him the win.

[2 * 4 * (34) - 16]/C(45,2) = 256/990 = 25.8585...%