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View Full Version : 2:1 on a flush draw??

skitzo444
09-06-2005, 06:50 PM
I was rereading a poker book and it said when you flop a 4 flush you will make it about 30% of the time giving you odds of aprox. 2-1. This means that if the pot size is double the BB after the flop it is correct to chase?? It seems like the pot will always be this big, and assuming the pot is 2 big on the turn it is still correct??

Luzion
09-06-2005, 07:01 PM
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I was rereading a poker book and it said when you flop a 4 flush you will make it about 30% of the time giving you odds of aprox. 2-1. This means that if the pot size is double the BB after the flop it is correct to chase?? It seems like the pot will always be this big, and assuming the pot is 2 big on the turn it is still correct??

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Its actually more like 35% from what I recall. What they really mean is that you will make your flush about 35% from the flop to the river. Thats seeing 2 cards.

And no. You will be seeing bets on both the flop and turn, so you need to account for this. You need to have proper odds just to see the next card. Factor in some implied odds, and its about 1:4 to see the next card.

KJL
09-06-2005, 07:06 PM
It is 2-1 to hit by the river from the flop. However if you have to call a bet on the flop and turn, you have to count both of those calls. The way I do it is I look at the odds in terms of my chance to hit on the next card, which in this case is 4-1.

WalkAmongUs
09-10-2005, 10:04 AM
How does getting 2:1 affect you raising for value though? If I have a four flush and there are 2 callers I usually raise for value. Is this correct? The odds of making the flush from flop to river would be (9/47) + (9/46) = .387 = 38.7%. This is about 1.6:1 odds. The probablities are added because the fifth heart comes on either the turn OR the river. Is my math correct here?

Luzion
09-10-2005, 03:18 PM
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How does getting 2:1 affect you raising for value though? If I have a four flush and there are 2 callers I usually raise for value. Is this correct? The odds of making the flush from flop to river would be (9/47) + (9/46) = .387 = 38.7%. This is about 1.6:1 odds. The probablities are added because the fifth heart comes on either the turn OR the river. Is my math correct here?

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This is not correct math.

1 - (38/47)(37/46) = 0.34967 = 0.35 = 35% you will make flush by the river.

Also, it's more complicated then having assuming you can always make this play +EV against 2 callers. You have to consider the size of the pot.

Your odds of catching the flush on the turn is 4.2:1. If the pot is only 3SB, then raising two callers is not really +EV since they are putting 2SB each for a pot total of 7SB, while you yourself are putting 2SB. If the pot was 6SB on the flop because you pf raised, then yes it COULD be profitable. Raise behind them, they are putting in 2SB each, for a pot of 10SB while you yourself contribute 2SB. Of course, if they 3bet and cap the flop, they just made you put in too much money.

So the lesson is its a lot more complicated. You have to consider amounts of opponents calling and pot size. You also have to factor in the free card play, possibility of getting 3bet/capped back at, and implied odds before raising for value.

Mr. Curious
09-10-2005, 09:34 PM
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How does getting 2:1 affect you raising for value though? If I have a four flush and there are 2 callers I usually raise for value. Is this correct? The odds of making the flush from flop to river would be (9/47) + (9/46) = .387 = 38.7%. This is about 1.6:1 odds. The probablities are added because the fifth heart comes on either the turn OR the river. Is my math correct here?

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Your odds of catching the flush on the turn is 4.2:1. If the pot is only 3SB, then raising two callers is not really +EV since they are putting 2SB each for a pot total of 7SB, while you yourself are putting 2SB. If the pot was 6SB on the flop because you pf raised, then yes it COULD be profitable. Raise behind them, they are putting in 2SB each, for a pot of 10SB while you yourself contribute 2SB. Of course, if they 3bet and cap the flop, they just made you put in too much money.

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I'm pretty sure this is wrong. As long as you have a 35% pot equity edge and at least two people in the pot with you, every bet that goes in on the flop is +EV. You are going to win the pot 35% of the time, but you've only put in 33% of the money.

Luzion
09-11-2005, 12:55 AM
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I'm pretty sure this is wrong. As long as you have a 35% pot equity edge and at least two people in the pot with you, every bet that goes in on the flop is +EV. You are going to win the pot 35% of the time, but you've only put in 33% of the money.

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You are only at 35% pot equity only if you stay until the river. To be profitable, you need more then two people before raising is profitable.

anatta
09-11-2005, 11:34 AM
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I'm pretty sure this is wrong. As long as you have a 35% pot equity edge and at least two people in the pot with you, every bet that goes in on the flop is +EV. You are going to win the pot 35% of the time, but you've only put in 33% of the money.

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You are only at 35% pot equity only if you stay until the river. To be profitable, you need more then two people before raising is profitable.

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Sorry but the original quote is correct, you have the best of it getting 2:1 on a 35% shot on the flop. You make money so long as you have two opponents and are sure that you will win 35%.

Luzion
09-11-2005, 10:14 PM
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Sorry but the original quote is correct, you have the best of it getting 2:1 on a 35% shot on the flop. You make money so long as you have two opponents and are sure that you will win 35%.

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Certainly. If your opponents stay until the river too.

09-11-2005, 11:09 PM
Your not going to win everytime you make a flush.. and if your capping the flop I don't think it's still +ev because of flopped boats, sets, two pairs that fill well you also hit. are more likely...

Luzion
09-11-2005, 11:28 PM
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Your not going to win everytime you make a flush.. and if your capping the flop I don't think it's still +ev because of flopped boats, sets, two pairs that fill well you also hit. are more likely...

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We are assuming your pot equity is always 35%.

anatta
09-11-2005, 11:58 PM
If your bets and raises are being matched by two opponents on the flop, and you win the hand 35% of the time, your bets and raises have a positive expectation.

It doesn't matter if one or both of your opponents folds on the turn or river. The question is whether you have the best of it ON THE MONEY GOING IN ON THE FLOP.

Your bets and raises on the turn and river are independent of the flop bets and raises. For example, if you miss your flush on the turn, you are now 4.2:1 against winning the hand. If your bets and raises are still being called by your two opponents, these bets now have a negative expectation.

All of this assumes that you have exactly 9 outs which will be good and remain the nuts 100% of the time.

09-12-2005, 01:33 AM
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For example, if you miss your flush on the turn, you are now 4.2:1 against winning the hand. If your bets and raises are still being called by your two opponents, these bets now have a negative expectation.

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Wait a sec, I don't think your turn bets necessarily have negative expectation. Let's say 3 people see an unraised flop. You flop a four-flush. Someone bets, another calls, and you raise, both people call the raise. You miss on the turn. Both check to you and you bet. At this point there are 9 small bets in the pot, and you are betting an additional 2 sbs. If both people call you, you are getting 13:2 or 6.5 to 1 odds and still have pos. expectation because your odds against making the river flush are only 4.2:1 If one person calls you are getting 5.5 to 1 and still have pos exp. Am I right here?

LetYouDown
09-12-2005, 09:27 AM
You can make a move that negatively affects your EV within a hand and still have positive expectation.

Theoretically, say there were 1000 BB in the pot. And you're heads up and have a 20% shot of winning and have position. Do you bet if your opponent checks? Do you raise if your opponent bets? No.

anatta
09-12-2005, 12:34 PM
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For example, if you miss your flush on the turn, you are now 4.2:1 against winning the hand. If your bets and raises are still being called by your two opponents, these bets now have a negative expectation.

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Wait a sec, I don't think your turn bets necessarily have negative expectation. Let's say 3 people see an unraised flop. You flop a four-flush. Someone bets, another calls, and you raise, both people call the raise. You miss on the turn. Both check to you and you bet. At this point there are 9 small bets in the pot, and you are betting an additional 2 sbs. If both people call you, you are getting 13:2 or 6.5 to 1 odds and still have pos. expectation because your odds against making the river flush are only 4.2:1 If one person calls you are getting 5.5 to 1 and still have pos exp. Am I right here?

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Hmm...Checking is more profitable then betting when you have a flush draw with two opponents and the assuptions that we have made (they always call your bets, you need to hit your 9 outs to win...) However, its clear that calling a bet or raise with a normal sized pot on the turn with a flush draw is a positive expectation call, so maybe you are right, betting and raising here is positive EV, but just not as profitable as checking?? Sorry not sure myself now.

All I really know is that due to the drawing odds 35% on flop and 4.2:1 on turn, betting and raising is "profitable" on flop, but not so on turn in our example.

LetYouDown
09-12-2005, 12:45 PM
Again, you can make a call/bet with negative expectation on that call/bet...but positive overall expectation. By raising the turn with a flush draw, you're lowering your EV, but depending on the size of the pot...it could very well still be positive.

Mr. Curious
09-12-2005, 03:12 PM
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For example, if you miss your flush on the turn, you are now 4.2:1 against winning the hand. If your bets and raises are still being called by your two opponents, these bets now have a negative expectation.

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Wait a sec, I don't think your turn bets necessarily have negative expectation. Let's say 3 people see an unraised flop. You flop a four-flush. Someone bets, another calls, and you raise, both people call the raise. You miss on the turn. Both check to you and you bet. At this point there are 9 small bets in the pot, and you are betting an additional 2 sbs. If both people call you, you are getting 13:2 or 6.5 to 1 odds and still have pos. expectation because your odds against making the river flush are only 4.2:1 If one person calls you are getting 5.5 to 1 and still have pos exp. Am I right here?

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Close, but you confusing strategy with EV.

EV:
There are 9 small bets in the pot and you need 4.2:1 pot odds to call a bet. If either of the other players bets, than you will be getting 11:2 or 5.5:1 which is correct odds to call, provided that there is no raise by the other player. Because you will hit your flush more often than the pot odds you are getting, calling the bet gives you +EV.

Pot Equity:
Your pot equity on the turn has dropped to 20%, so if both players check to you and you bet, then you are voluntarily putting in money that you will only win 20% of the time. The only way to make this +EV is if you have 6 or more callers. Then you will only be putting in 16% of the money while holding a 20% claim to the pot.

Strategy:
The only way strategy can affect your EV is if betting will clean up some of your outs (like folding someone who has an ace and better kicker giving you 3 more outs) or if you can reasonably assume the amount of time that your opponents will fold to your turn bet or a river bluff if you miss. If you are playing against two calling stations who never fold, then you should check the turn every time against those players.

Luzion
09-12-2005, 03:38 PM
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If your bets and raises are being matched by two opponents on the flop, and you win the hand 35% of the time, your bets and raises have a positive expectation.

It doesn't matter if one or both of your opponents folds on the turn or river. The question is whether you have the best of it ON THE MONEY GOING IN ON THE FLOP.

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I just realized what you said. That is not true at all; it matters a lot of if your opponents will fold on the turn or river. Here is why.

Lets assume the pot on the flop is 3sb in all these examples. Lets assume you are UTG and you have two opponents that both have position on you, thus able to make you put in lots of bets on the turn.

A) You raise the flop, and make the flush on the turn. Both opponents fold.
1.5bb + 3bb = pot4.5bb - contribution1bb = 3.5bb profit * 9/47 =

EV = +0.67bb

B) You raise the flop, and the turn comes up blank. Opponents make you put in 4bets to see the river. River comes up blank.
-5bb * (38/47)(37/46) =

EV = -3.25bb

C) You raise the flop, turn comes up blank. Opponents make you put in 4bets to see the river. You make flush on river but both opponents fold.
1.5bb + 3bb + 12bb = 16.5potsize - contribution5bb = 11.5 * (38/47)(9/46) =

EV = 1.82bb

Total EV = -0.76bb

So yes, it matters if your opponents will fold on the turn/river. I just showed you its possible for you to be -EV if your opponents folded every time you completed the flush.

09-12-2005, 06:11 PM
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For example, if you miss your flush on the turn, you are now 4.2:1 against winning the hand. If your bets and raises are still being called by your two opponents, these bets now have a negative expectation.

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Wait a sec, I don't think your turn bets necessarily have negative expectation. Let's say 3 people see an unraised flop. You flop a four-flush. Someone bets, another calls, and you raise, both people call the raise. You miss on the turn. Both check to you and you bet. At this point there are 9 small bets in the pot, and you are betting an additional 2 sbs. If both people call you, you are getting 13:2 or 6.5 to 1 odds and still have pos. expectation because your odds against making the river flush are only 4.2:1 If one person calls you are getting 5.5 to 1 and still have pos exp. Am I right here?

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Pot Equity:
Your pot equity on the turn has dropped to 20%, so if both players check to you and you bet, then you are voluntarily putting in money that you will only win 20% of the time. The only way to make this +EV is if you have 6 or more callers. Then you will only be putting in 16% of the money while holding a 20% claim to the pot.

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O.K.
First: not to split hairs, but don't you mean you need 5 callers (not 6) for +EV (16%), and only 4 callers is still an even proposition?
Second: I was not advocating betting the turn if they both check, I was just using that as the example because the original quote above says "if your bets are still being called by your two opponents, you have neg. exp" - which I do not believe is the case, i.e. my example.
Third: I don't even know what EV is. Although I get the idea based on the context of these posts. What is it exactly and how is it calculated?

Thanks

Luzion
09-12-2005, 06:58 PM
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O.K.
First: not to split hairs, but don't you mean you need 5 callers (not 6) for +EV (16%), and only 4 callers is still an even proposition?
Second: I was not advocating betting the turn if they both check, I was just using that as the example because the original quote above says "if your bets are still being called by your two opponents, you have neg. exp" - which I do not believe is the case, i.e. my example.
Third: I don't even know what EV is. Although I get the idea based on the context of these posts. What is it exactly and how is it calculated?

Thanks

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EV is the summation of all probabilities and their values.

For example, you wanna chase a draw. 75% you will miss, and it will cost you 2 bets. 25% you will make it and earn a 10bb pot.

(-2 * 0.75) + (0.25 * 10) = 1bb

EV = 1bb

or you would say that chasing the draw would be +EV

09-12-2005, 07:15 PM
haven't read the thread so apologize if someone said exactly same thing.

yes, you will have that 30% chance of finishing. i did the 30% chance by memory but sounds generally right.

and you pot analysis would be correct if you didn't have 3 more rounds of betting. unfortunately, you could be looking at 5 more small bets (2.5 big bets) with one other caller and that will bring your odds down much closer to 1 to 1...

i would say if you are in loose game with decent number of callers, then 4 flush is almost always worth playing to finish if you are confident your flush would win.

worst is putting all that money and then flush not winning. especially watch in the unlikely scenario where two more of your suit fall and your flush isn't that high. one of the few times in limit where you really have to read your opponents. obviously if there's 3 of them and you have a 9 high flush with 4 on the board, you could be in huge trouble.

but basically in loose games, pots are usually pretty big by the flop.

09-12-2005, 08:33 PM
OK - thanks for that info. Now:

1. In a practical sense, are you looking at positive expectation or +EV when making decisions at the poker table? What is the practical application of calculating EV if it differs from positive/negative expectation?

2. If you don't mind sharing, where did you get the information on calculating EV and its use in poker?

Thanks again.

Luzion
09-12-2005, 08:57 PM
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OK - thanks for that info. Now:

1. In a practical sense, are you looking at positive expectation or +EV when making decisions at the poker table? What is the practical application of calculating EV if it differs from positive/negative expectation?

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Of course you are. You make money when you do something that profits you long term. Im not sure I understand your question; EV is the same thing as positive/negative expectation.

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2. If you don't mind sharing, where did you get the information on calculating EV and its use in poker?

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Common sense can go a long way. You dont need to take a probability course to know intuitively what EV is. Suppose I asked you to play a game of dice with me at \$5 a game. If we roll a 6, I pay you \$20. If we roll 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 then I keep the \$5. Is this profitable aka would this earn you a positive expectation? You can use similar intuitive logic when playing poker. But yes, I have studied some probability.

09-12-2005, 11:40 PM
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You can make a move that negatively affects your EV within a hand and still have positive expectation.

Theoretically, say there were 1000 BB in the pot. And you're heads up and have a 20% shot of winning and have position. Do you bet if your opponent checks? Do you raise if your opponent bets? No.

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Ok, LetYouDown posted the above quote. If positive/negative expectation are the same as EV, then how is this possible? Furthermore, why is EV seemingly discussed seperately from pos/neg expectation? Why don't people just use one or the other? Thanks

Luzion
09-13-2005, 01:45 AM
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You can make a move that negatively affects your EV within a hand and still have positive expectation.

Theoretically, say there were 1000 BB in the pot. And you're heads up and have a 20% shot of winning and have position. Do you bet if your opponent checks? Do you raise if your opponent bets? No.

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Ok, LetYouDown posted the above quote. If positive/negative expectation are the same as EV, then how is this possible? Furthermore, why is EV seemingly discussed seperately from pos/neg expectation? Why don't people just use one or the other? Thanks

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What he actually means is, you can make a mistake in a hand (as in that a move is a mistake because it is immediately -EV) and yet be +EV throughout the hand because you make up for it.

09-13-2005, 09:08 AM
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Ok, LetYouDown posted the above quote. If positive/negative expectation are the same as EV, then how is this possible? Furthermore, why is EV seemingly discussed seperately from pos/neg expectation? Why don't people just use one or the other? Thanks

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+EV is shorthand for Positive (+) Expected (E) Value (V). The reason that people generally prefer to use EV is that it provides a more precise approach. There are, for example, situations where both calling and raising are +EV, but one (usually raising) has a higher +EV than the other.

It's also handy to have EV when dealing with implied odds questions.