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09-02-2005, 03:03 AM
as you may or may not know, pokermods has a party/skins mod that has an overlay of odds. i don't know how to put up a picture, but here are the odds displayed:

OUTS ODDS
1 45:1 2.2%
2 22:1 4.5%
3 14.3:1 7.0%
4 10.5:1 9.5%
5 8.2:1 12.2%
6 6.7:1 14.9%
7 5.6:1 17.9%
8 4.8:1 20.8%
9 4.1:1 24.4%
10 3.6:1 27.7%
11 3.2:1 31.3%
12 2.8:1 35.7%
13 2.5:1 40%
14 2.2:1 45.5%
15 2.1:1 47.6%
16 1.9:1 52.6%
17 1.7:1 58.8%
18 1.6:1 62.5%

ok, my problem is that, say with 15 outs, and 1 card to come (i assume these odds tables are calculated with one card to come), the odds against catching one of your outs is 2.1:1. this means that for every 2.1 times you miss, you catch it once. or, roughly, that you will catch 1/3 of the time. so, where do they come up with a percentage of 47.6%?

thanks for any input!

KJL
09-02-2005, 12:42 PM
I quicky looked over it, and it seems that all of the odds are right, but the percatnages are wrong. For instance with 15 outs it say the odds are 2.2-1, which is right. However instead of doing 1/3.2 to calculate the percantage, they did 1/2.2.

ThinkQuick
09-03-2005, 12:19 AM
interesting how they did that.

the % for 18 outs should be 18/46, but it isn't in this chart, it's 18/28.8 - which is not even close. (28.8 is 18*1.6, just like KJL showed).

Lexander
09-03-2005, 03:36 AM
Thinking about it, they are reporting the correct number, though I think in truth the percentage is confusing.

Odds are defined as the P/1-P where P is the probability of the event happening.

So, for example, if you have 18 outs, you have 18/46 chance of success, and 28/46 chance of failure. The odds are 18/28, which can be expressed as a percentage, but that is confusing because it turns out that the number can be greater than 1.