PDA

View Full Version : Blackjack odds question.

pokerjoker
08-31-2005, 11:27 PM
Assuming you play perfectly and adjust your play based on the count (Split 10s if dealer shows a 6 and count is +4 or more....etc.)

What are the odds you will win the hand based on the count?

I know as the count improves you are a favorite and as it gets lower you are more of a dog but is there anyway to get the exact numbers for this?

BruceZ
08-31-2005, 11:57 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming you play perfectly and adjust your play based on the count (Split 10s if dealer shows a 6 and count is +4 or more....etc.)

What are the odds you will win the hand based on the count?

I know as the count improves you are a favorite and as it gets lower you are more of a dog but is there anyway to get the exact numbers for this?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a misconception. Your probability of winning a hand is about the same for virtually any realistic count, and it is always about 42-43%, with about 9% pushes. See this simulation result (http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/conseq/streak.htm). The reason high counts give you a higher EV is because you get more blackjacks, doubles, splits, and correct insurance plays, and because you can vary your bets, not because you win more hands.

pokerjoker
09-01-2005, 04:29 AM
I didnt mean winning hands, sorry bad wording on my part. I really meant EV.

BruceZ
09-01-2005, 08:49 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I didnt mean winning hands, sorry bad wording on my part. I really meant EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are simulators that you can purchase which will give you EV vs. count, overall EV, and standard deviation for any count system, rules, number of decks, and penetration. I have CVSIM (Casino Verite) and SBA. Check bj21.com or rge21.com. These are needed for your overall EV which is very sensitive to penetration and the way you spread your bets; however, if you just want to approximate your EV for a particular true count, Cardcounter has given you good information on Other Gambling. Also see this post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=3107743&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;s b=5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1) I made about how to adjust the house edge for different numbers of decks and common rules variations.