View Full Version : over pair on suited flop

08-29-2005, 10:50 PM
It's late in a tourney: You bet before the flop with TT, and the BB calls. The flop comes three low suited cards. Your opponent either moves-in on you, or check-raises you.... and you sit there with your pair and no draws on a very dangerous board....
been there?

Flop: [9/images/graemlins/spade.gif-3/images/graemlins/spade.gif-2/images/graemlins/spade.gif]
Player A holds [T/images/graemlins/heart.gif-T/images/graemlins/club.gif]

Q1: What are the chances of player B holding a hand from the following group:
-any spade-draw
-pair of nines or better

Q2: What is player A's EV vs the given hand group?

Q3: How well does Player A's hand do on average against hands not in the group?

08-29-2005, 11:18 PM
You only have about a 10% chance of winning against any trips or two pair, or higher pair than 10's. Against a flush you're even worse, about 3%.

If the other player has one spade, the hand is about even. He has a bit of an edge if both his cards are higher than 10, you have a bit of an edge if they both are lower. That's true even if he also has a pair, as long as the pair is lower the 10's.

The only hands you do well against are ones with no spades and no pair higher than 10's. He could have come in on Ace anything, or King anything or Queen Jack; maybe something weaker. But going all in on anything like that is a pure bluff.

There's not much equity here for you.