View Full Version : About swings - semi serious post

08-25-2005, 05:06 AM
This makes me feel in a similar way as when I think about wheter universe is infinite or not.

Swings are a fact for a poker player, some times you're running good and sometimes you're running bad. Most people accept that fact. The question is, can you mess with the swings. Here are some examples:

If I am currently running bad, sitting at an online cashgame loosing coinflips and getting drawn out on on a regular basis. My friend is with me, he's currently running good and winning most of the above mentioned situations. What will happen if he take over my computer and start playing on my account? Will my loosing account become a winning one? In that case there is some bigger power controlling all this and affecting the rng of the site. So, is the swing connected to the site/account or the person?

This gets me to the next example, if it's connected to the site/account could I change between sites and find the one which I will run good at at the moment?

Are swings time or hand based? If they are time based you could rest yourself into better luck, not playing for a while when running bad, if it's hands based you have to work your way through it.

I don't know if you even can ask the questions I did but I have given this some thought, almost making me crazy!

I guess the most interesting one is the first example, If an online account plays on a site it should be destined to get it's fair share of cards etc, sometimes getting better than average and sometimes worse than average card. If we accept that you could make a player running good start running bad just by putting him on this cold account, right? If he still continue running good on the cold account the way cards are delt are someway altered just by having another player at the seat.

Or maybe I just don't understand this at all...

08-25-2005, 05:08 AM

08-25-2005, 06:17 AM
I have a rose crystal that I rub everytime I am in desperate need of good cards. Ive analyzed it and it seems that indeed my chances of getting a top10 hand is increased by 34.2% everytime I use it.

08-25-2005, 08:47 AM
Or maybe I just don't understand this at all...

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08-25-2005, 09:35 AM
Okay, it looks like no one will give you a serious response, so I will (rightly or wrongly)

So, is the swing connected to the site/account or the person?

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Are swings time or hand based?

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Time is irrelevent to the statistical aspects of poker

Here is the most important fact:

If you have been 'running bad' (whatever exactly that means) the chances you will lose your next coinflip will always be 50%, same as if you have been 'running good'

For example the chances of getting dealt AA next hand will always be 1/221, no matter what has happened the last however many hands

08-25-2005, 10:53 AM
the answer is no!
the bad running and good running are results of ur CPU clock. so u will be in bad run in every accoutn, or anyone sitting on ur computer will run bad.

08-25-2005, 11:37 AM
Each hand in poker is an independent event.

The past does not dictate the future.

08-25-2005, 11:44 AM
Each hand in poker is an independent event.

The past does not dictate the future.

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Unless you have access to the pattern mapper.

08-25-2005, 02:29 PM
The answers you have so far are correct for roulette, but I think Poker is different. One of the keys to successful Poker is making your losses productive. Every time you lose a hand, you reinforce behavior in others that you can potentially exploit; or can work against you if you react incorrectly.

This matters much more in bricks and mortar games than on-line, but it's still good discipline to think this way. How will people change their play against you as a result of what they have just seen, and how can you react to take advantage of those changes?

While these things depend on the type of loss and the specifics of the table, there are two generalizations. One is that people expect losers to get tight/passive. Therefore, loose/aggressive is more likely to be successful. Another is that people want to win money from losers, seeing you lose a big pot is going to encourage people to come after you, before you lose all your money to someone else. If you're prepared for that, it's an advantage.

Some losses are more productive than others. Folding at the river or having nothing at all at showdown have much more value than showing down with a good hand that gets beat. That's something you should think about in advance, try to make your losses productive ones.