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View Full Version : Trying to design probablity tables - where is the error

comic2b
04-06-2003, 11:55 PM
I was a great math student in college scoring well in probability, finance, and accounting. I am now playing poker over 10 years later. Here is my question. I am trying to design proability based on the games I play; HE a two card game; Pineapple, Southern, and Stripper, all three card games; Omaha, a four card game; and Tommy, Omaha played with five cards. I certainly know the basic probabilities, but I want to be able to get the exact information. I'm especially interested in the idea of the probability on the flop vs. the probability on the turn.

I started with Hold'em just to test out my Excel database. I'm basically figuring outs versus cards to come.

E.g. If I have 9 outs I'm showing that there is a 38.71% probability that I'll hit my hand. When I check Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players I see that it is actually 35%. I figured out my chart by 9/47 for the flop plus 9/46 on the river to arrive at 38.71%. When I check the book it shows 35% on page 309. I'll assume that I am wrong and Sklansky is right /forums/images/icons/wink.gif Where is my math error or what am I doing wrong. Help appreciated.

This task would be irrelevant if I could find the data I was looking for on the net. A chart with holem and omaha with it showing with one card and two cards to come.

BruceZ
04-07-2003, 08:39 AM
It isn't 9/46 on the river unless you miss on the turn, so you have to multiply 9/46 by the probability that you miss on the turn which is 38/47. When you hit on both, you don't want to count that twice. So 9/47 + (38/47)(9/46) = 35%. Or you can take 1 minus the probability of not making it which is 1 - (38/47)(37/46) = 35%.

You can do all the problems this way, or you can use www.twodimes.net/poker (http://www.twodimes.net/poker) which does hold'em and omaha.