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View Full Version : third time lucky

08-19-2005, 12:43 PM
i keep posting my question on the wrong forum. lets try again.

i'm having problems understanding the odds of me winning a particular hand.

i was playing in a game around my mates house. i had never played there before. i sat at the table for 55minutes without playing a hand. i then got dealt 6,6. i was the big blind (\$10) and everyone hand folded apart from 1 person, who raised \$10. i called(because he was someone who played most hands, so i thought he didn't have much). the flop came 6, 2, q. i checked. he bet \$40. i re-raised all-in for this reason; i felt, at best, he only had q,? (giving him a pair).

the question i have is this: how do i calculate my chances of winning the hand after the flop? i thought i had the best hand at that moment, but with two cards left, it could be beaten? (he may have two pairs, or an overpair).

Please note. a number of people have replied previously (thank you). however their response has been 'look at an odds compilier website'. the problem is, that is not possible when i'm sat at a table, in the middle of a game.

StojkeAK
08-20-2005, 06:59 PM
With a set of sixes you are :
~92% to win against an over pair (AA, KK ect.)
~98% against a Q
~4% against a set of Queens
~96% against a set of 2's

AaronBrown
08-21-2005, 11:06 AM
You have an overwhelming advantage unless your opponent holds QQ, in which case you have an overwhelming disadvantage. I'll ignore the remote straight possibilities, but if there are two suited cards on the flop, you should consider flushes. You still have the advantage, but it's no longer as overwhelming.

So to compute your odds, you have to figure what hands your opponent would raise preflop and postflop. I don't know him or what position he was in. Postflop, the likely raising hands are QQ, Q6, Q2, 66, 62, 22 and AQ. But only QQ and AQ are likely preflop raises. After the flop, there are only 3 possible QQ and 12 possible AQ; but I'd raise the QQ probability because it's a better raise in both positions; and because the fact everyone else folded suggests there's a dearth of Aces in those hands. On the other hand, there are all kinds of other possibilities, whether from deception, wild play or mistakes. So I'd say the chance of QQ is less than 20% given this information. Knowing more about the opponents and position, that might go up or down.

Therefore, I raise the limit here. If he's got QQ, then I've thrown my money away. But he could call with AQ or one of those other hands, and that gives me a big edge. I think there's more chance of him calling with a hand I'm almost sure to beat than there is of him having QQ. And if he's going to draw out for a third Queen, I want him to pay for it.

Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!
08-21-2005, 06:45 PM
loosen up.