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sillyarms
04-01-2003, 05:45 AM
I have created an excel spreatsheet to calculate 2 things.
1)Odds of having the best hand at pre-flop
2)Correct betting action for draws.

I have put the spreatsheet online at http://aheaddesigns.brinkster.net/test%20folder/poker%20calculate.xls

I would very much appreciate it if someone could check my math and awnser a few questions.

Q1) How do I calculate the odds of someone having the same hand as I do for pre-flop and how do I tie that in to the pot odds needed to call in the spreadsheet?

Q2)At what point is it profitable to raise after the flop? How do I factor in the probability of a re-raise?

Q3)Is my math right?

thanks in advance

sillyarms

Epi
04-01-2003, 02:31 PM
A couple of quick (lunchtime) comments--

While there are 168 possible starting hands, some are more likely to be dealt than others are. For example, there are 12 ways to make AA (A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif A /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif , A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif , A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif A /forums/images/icons/club.gif and so on) and 8 ways to make AK suited (A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif followed by K /forums/images/icons/spade.gif and K /forums/images/icons/spade.gif followed by A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif, plus the other three suits). Other combinations follow the same pattern. You may want to adjust for that.

The probability of having the best hand pre-flop depends on how early in the pre-flop stage you are thinking about. At the outset, (assuming cards are independent (they are not, but we can ignore this at the moment) your chance of having the relatively best hand is the same as everyone else's: 1/10. The absolutely best hand depends on how they are ranked: is 7-4 suited better than King-9 offsuit? By how much? There are a couple of links that give you some EV calcuations for this, but I canít find them at the moment. Will look more later.

Once people start raising/calling/folding, p(best hand) depends why other players did those actions, and HPFAP is probably a good place to start looking at that.

sillyarms
04-01-2003, 03:37 PM
A) For example, there are 12 ways to make AA (A A , A A , A A and so on) and 8 ways to make AK suited (A followed by K and K followed by A , plus the other three suits).

Q) Great point I defentially will have to take it into account. But does it really matter what order the cards were delt since there are really only 4 ways to make a suited hand, 12 ways to make an offsuited hand and 6 ways to make any pair? regardless of the order they were delt they are still the same hand, right?


A) The absolutely best hand depends on how they are ranked: is 7-4 suited better than King-9 offsuit? By how much?

Q) For now I am going by HPFAP hand rankings. But I am currently working on writing a simulator to evaluate each of the starting hands. such as done at http://mentorms.best.vwh.net/poker/HE_Value.htm . I'd use these values but only 1,000,000 seems like a pretty small sample. I'd like to do a billion or two at least.

thanks for the reply you have given me some great points to ponder.

sillyarms